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Monthly Nano News: December 2019 + Year Recap Special
This is what NANO has been up to lately. I don't think I lie if I say it has been quite an amazing year! See you soon and happy new year! Something nice is coming soon that I have been working on for a while, stay tuned..
Whenever I look at the live bitcoin market, I have my bookmarks set to automatically open up this chart as well. It helps keeps the long-term trends in focus and reminds me not to get too involved with the moment to moment movements of the price.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg360za1gTMAzm1g40zm2g25zvzl It's a 40 day triangular moving average on a log scale of a non-MtGox exchange. I think it is brings the "high" of $250 USD/BTC into a more accurate perspective, that it didn't really happen in a meaningful way. Most importantly, this graph doesn't have a leading edge that can jump around like crazy and freak you out. For any trend to be visible it needs to be happening for about 20 days. A lot of bitcoiners are in this for the long-haul, so I think choosing the right type of chart for that purpose is important. I think looking at the only one type of chart that has too much detail, can make checking the price of bitcoin a bit of a compulsion.
USD (DXY) up 0.08%, EUR down 0.04%, GBP down 0.50%, JPY down 0.12%, CNY Onshore up 0.12%, CNH Offshore up 0.02%, AUD down 0.23%
VIX up 0.65% to 9.25
Gold up 0.13% to $1,269.01
Silver down 0.11% to $16.62
Copper up 0.25% to $305.40
WTI Crude down 0.79% to $50.39
Brent Crude down 0.18% to $56.90
Natural Gas down 0.44% to $2.91
Corn down 0.07% to $3.49/bu
Wheat up 0.06% to $4.41/bu
Bitcoin up 1.55% to $4,414.56
Treasuries 2yr yields are up ~1.3bps at 1.500%, 10yr yields are up ~1.6bps at 2.364% and 30yr yields are up ~0.9bps at 2.899%
Japan 10yr yields 0.045%, up ~1.0bps on the day
France 10yr yields 0.750%, up ~1.9bps on the day
Italy 10yr yields 2.156%, up ~1.8bps on the day
Spain 10yr yields 1.704%, up ~1.8bps on the day
Germany 10yr yields 0.474%, up ~2.2bps on the day
What’s happening this morning? It was another slow evening of news other than the German Aug factory order numbers (which were very strong although the euro and Eurozone stocks are both in the red), a few US earnings reports (COST and YUMC), andsome M&A (GIMO, HON, JWN, PENN/PNK, SNCR, and more). The overall macro narrativeremains the same as it was at the Thurs close (see below for an update on the macro narrative as well as potential upcoming risks). The major Asian indices generally saw gains – TPX +0.28%, NKY +0.3%, Hang Seng +0.28%, HSCEI +0.54%, Taiwan +0.14%, Australia +1.04%, and India +0.5-7% (mainland China and Korea were both closed). There weren’t any huge themes in Asia although Macau casino stocks were weak in HK on back of underwhelming Golden Week visitor numbers (autos and financials led HK on the upside). Australia’s 1% rally was led by banks, miners, and telecoms. The major Eurozone indices are trading off small (~10-20bp); autos are outperforming while banks, retail, energy, and utilities lag. The GBP is extending its losses from Thurs amid more uncertainty around UK PM May (the DXY spiked ~50bp Thurs and is up small so far Fri morning). US S&P futures are trading down 1-2 points.
Calendar for Fri 10/6 – the focus will be on the US jobs report for Sept (8:30amET), US wholesale inventories/trade sales for Aug (10amET), US consumer credit for Aug (3pmET), and Fed speakers (Kaplan 8:30amET on CNBC, Bostic 9:15amET, Dudley 12:15pmET, Kaplan 12:45pmET, and Bullard 1pmET). o US jobs preview – there is very little anticipation or focus on the Sept jobs report (Fri morning 8/6 8:30amET) as 1) most are anticipating large storm-related distortions and 2) at this point in the cycle it only requires ~75K monthly adds to keep the UR steady (as was discussed in this JPMorgan report http://bit.ly/2fbT6cE). The St is in print at +80K for adds (vs. ADP for Sept at +135K and Aug BLS +156K) w/a 4.4% UR (unchanged w/Aug) and wages +0.3% M/M and +2.5% Y/Y (vs. Aug +0.1% M/M and +2.5% Y/Y). It’s very difficult to see the Sept BLS report changing the near-term US monetary policy trajectory (w/ongoing normalization and a FF hike on 12/13). The potential for a hike on 11/1 is very low and if anything the Sept CPI on Fri 10/13 may be a more important data point than jobs on Fri 10/6. Instead, the bigger Fed uncertainty has nothing to do w/data or policy but instead concerns staffing (i.e. who will be the next chair? A Trump announcement could come as soon as next week – Powell and Warsh are the frontrunners according to media reports w/the former appearing to have a slight edge).
Top Headlines for Friday
Eco data recap for Fri morning 10/6 – the big data came out of Germany where factory orders for Aug beat expectations by a wide margin (orders +3.6% M/M vs. the St +0.7% and +7.8% Y/Y vs. the St +4.7%). See JPMorgan’s comments on the German data (http://bit.ly/2y42sh4). Japan’s wage inflation figures for Aug were soft, as expected (http://bit.ly/2kuygr0). o Fed chair – markets would be comfortable w/any of the main candidates (including Powell, Warsh, Cohn, Yellen, etc.) w/the exception of one person: John Taylor. Bloomberg. o Fed update – Kansas City Fed President George spoke Thurs night and said the US economy needed further rates hikes (http://cnb.cx/2kqTiqj). JPMorgan’s Mike Feroli published an updated FOMC hawk/dove chart following the confirmation of Quarles (http://bit.ly/2z1jSti). o Japan’s “Party of Hope” unveils an economic agenda that pledges to rely less on aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus – Reuters http://reut.rs/2ghahXu o AUD hit as RBA’s Harper doesn’t rule out a rate cut in a WSJ article. http://on.wsj.com/2xW3nkD
UK PM May the subject of more speculation amid disclosure of plot to topple her; former party chairman, Grant Shapps, said May’s leadership should now be challenged. Reuters http://reut.rs/2yMrmzB
Spain/Catalonia – Spain’s Constitutional Court ordered the suspension of the Catalan parliament’s regional session scheduled for Mon; Catalonia had planned on declaring independence at the session. Reuters http://reut.rs/2xlDfjC o Spain’s gov’t will change rules and make it easier for firms to move their legal base out of Catalonia – Reuters http://reut.rs/2z1WQCF
Tax update - there is a lot of focus on taxes in the US as the Senate Budget Committee (right at the Thurs close) and the full House (at ~1pmET Thurs afternoon) advance budget resolutions (the full Senate will presumably vote within the next two weeks). This is a necessary step in the tax process (as these resolutions contain the reconciliation instructions allowing tax to pass via a simple majority in the Senate) but also a relatively minor one. Far more complicated will be agreeing on rates, deduction schedules, deficits, etc., and if anything all the press in the last few days and weeks point to divisions within the GOP on these matters being larger than anticipated. o Schumer warns that the proposal to eliminate the SALT deduction will kill the GOP tax plan – Bloomberg. https://bloom.bg/2xXX8KL o GOP desire to repeal the estate tax runs into resistance - from Republicans. As a result this piece of the 9/27 tax blueprint (among others) may wind up being scrapped - WSJ. http://on.wsj.com/2gf9G8E o Fed officials express concern over tax plans – Fed officials warned the tax plan may only provide a temporary boost to growth while fueling inflation and driving debt to unsustainable levels – Reuters http://reut.rs/2xWMrdG
Republican headaches keep growing as donors withhold money, a tax consensus fails to materialize, and “establishment” figures depart the scene (Strange losing to Moore, Corker retiring, etc.). Republican leaders are increasingly concerned about the party’s grip on the House and Senate should it fail to pass a tax bill. Leaders “fear that the inchoate populism that Mr. Trump personifies, and which Mr. Bannon is attempting to weaponize against incumbents, is on the march” – NYT http://nyti.ms/2y3lUKT
Trump looks to jolt NAFTA – the White House is considering a proposal that would represent a radical shift to the principles underlying NAFTA. According to rule changes being considered, automobiles would need to have a specific level of US-made content in order to qualify for tariff breaks (right now autos only need to have a specific level of content from within the NAFTA region). WSJ. http://on.wsj.com/2y4LXlo
Trump makes cryptic comment ahead of a dinner with US military leaders. Trump said the dinner might represent “the calm before the storm”. Asked repeatedly by reporters to clarify his comments, Trump said, “You’ll find out” – Bloomberg https://bloom.bg/2xXI2r6
Trump was “furious” over NBC’s Tillerson “moron” article; John Kelly was forced to rearrange his schedule and stayed in Washington in order to try and calm tensions – NBC. http://nbcnews.to/2fOGx3B
Iran/Trump – Trump will “decertify” the Iran nuclear accord next week (speech on 10/12) and declare the agreement as not being in the US national interest according to the Washington Post (article out at ~2:40pmET Thurs afternoon). This is consistent w/what the AP and Politico reported earlier in the week. Note that Trump’s 10/12 declarations won’t end the Iranian nuclear pact as it will be up to Congress whether re-impose sanctions on Tehran (and Trump will hold off on recommending such a step). Washington Post http://wapo.st/2z1zeOw o Decertifying the Iran Deal Wouldn’t Have to Kill It – WSJ http://on.wsj.com/2y40dKY
North Korea – US lawmakers are pressuring the Trump White House to toughen sanctions against North Korea – WSJ. http://on.wsj.com/2xlKdVQ
The Economist's lead article this week speaks to sentiment at the moment and this is one of the big reasons why stocks are proving to be so resilient. "Asset prices are high across the board. Is it time to worry?" (http://econ.st/2xVXOjv). o The WSJ notes that a key European junk-bond index is now yielding less than 10yr US TSYs although it offers a reasonable explanation for this ostensibly irrational price level – WSJ. http://on.wsj.com/2xkwYVb
Company-specific news update from Thurs night. There were a few earnings reports out Thurs AMC but for the most part it was another slow evening. COST EPS beats thanks to better SG&A and favorable tax while GMs were light; Sept same-store-sales beat w/upside in the US (the stock ended down 3% during the Thurs after-hours trading session). YUMC’s results came in ahead of expectations (EPS/same-store-sales) and it increased capital return. SNCR reentered M&A talks w/Siris Capital (Siris is looking to buy SNCR’s Intralinks and may take a ~20% equity stake in SNCR); SNCR ended up ~27% during the Thurs after-hours trading session. According to the WSJ, HON is pursuing an acquisition of Evoqua Water Tech in a deal that could be worth $3B (http://on.wsj.com/2yseCSp). The WSJ reported (during trading on Thurs http://on.wsj.com/2xjE24p) on merger talks between PENN and PNK (the firms have been unable to agree to terms but PENN is still interested in buying PNK).
JWN buyout not completely dead – the Nordstrom family is exploring a new deal structure w/Leonard Green that would involve less debt. The family is trying to raise more equity (although it isn’t clear where the money will come from). WSJ. http://on.wsj.com/2ggTvbh
GIMO – Elliot’s takeover talks w/the company have ground to a halt according to Reuters over price disagreements – Reuters http://reut.rs/2fNCepo
SUM, ASHG – SUM has made a rival bid for ASHG as it looks to scuttle the existing Ash Grove-CRH PLC transaction. Ash Grove’s board said the offer could result in a superior proposal and that it would engage in talks with the third party. Bloomberg.
AMZN: the one market where Amazon is failing to dominate: Hollywood. The WSJ discusses AMZN’s failure to become a force in content. WSJ. http://on.wsj.com/2xZcJtr
Macau casino stocks slump during Fri trading as Golden Week visitor numbers disappoint expectations – Bloomberg https://bloom.bg/2fOuGmd
Identifying risks – what could go wrong?
Reflation enthusiasm is undercut by less aggressive CB normalization, dramatic curve flattening, and/or a softening in nominal growth. Of all the reflation pieces (monetary policy normalization, expansionary fiscal policy, firming inflation, and ongoing real growth strength), the last piece (real growth) is increasingly being taken for granted.
Bank investors wind up focusing too much on reflation/yields (which are tailwinds) but miss weakening credit (higher provisions) and tepid loan growth.
The first speech by the next Fed chair unsettles sentiment (assuming the chair isn’t Yellen).
The tax process slows in Washington as Republicans prove incapable of reaching a consensus on rates, deductions, and deficits.
Paul Ryan decides to “pull a Boehner”, stepping down as Speaker out of frustration with his inability to pass legislation.
The final tax bill results in materially higher rates for upper-income Americans.
May winds up stepping down as UK PM, sowing ongoing Brexit uncertainty.
Abe does much worse than anticipated during the upcoming Japan election (10/22).
North Korea conducts an above-ground nuclear bomb test (or even worse, an atmospheric test).
Iran decides to resume its nuclear weapons program, sparking an immediate escalation of Middle East geopolitical tensions (Trump’s Iran speech is coming up on 10/12).
Washington introduces (or threatens to introduce) tough new regulations aimed at internet/social media companies following the Russia election investigations (note that US internet giants will be testifying before Congress on 11/1).
Prominent members of the Trump team decide to leave the gov’t (the market would be particularly sensitive to Tillerson, Mattis, Kelly, and/or Cohn departing; recent media reports suggest the Tillerson-Trump relationship is particularly strained).
The pro-reflation bias commenced back on 9/11 and has been propelled ever since by ongoing real growth strength, firming inflation, normalizing monetary policy/rhetoric, and expansionary fiscal policy (in particular in the US w/the 9/27 tax blueprint but also in Germany following that country’s election outcome and fin min change).
This enthusiasm can extend for a few more weeks but the ECB/BOE decisions (on 10/26 and 11/2, respectively) will mark the culmination of a series of pro-reflation catalysts/developments and thus the trade may enter a period of extended consolidation around those central bank events.
Meanwhile the nuances of this present reflation process aren’t being appreciated – growth and corporate earnings are late-cycle (not early), multiples are already rich (although not necessarily ridiculous), inflation is only very gradually firming to target, the economy faces enormous structural headwinds in the form of labor supply and productivity growth, and while central banks are normalizing policy will stay extremely accommodative for years to come (the structural headwinds and slow tightening pace will prevent yields from materially rising and curves from significantly steepening).
The tenor of sentiment is beginning to evolve and there is definitely greater frustration w/people being forced to participate in a tape many don’t particularly love at present levels – this helps fuel runs such has occurred over the last few weeks (the SPX hasn’t closed in the red since Mon 9/25) but it also makes for a precarious setup w/a lot of weak “renters” who will be quick to sell the minute momentum pauses.
Bottom Line: the lack of major catalysts is helping the rally propagate and the calendar is relatively clear until earnings (which kick off w/banks on Thurs 10/12). The reflation impetus will likely stay in place into the ECB/BOE (10/26 and 11/2, respectively) after which a consolidation (at least) is likely (note that a lot of the “easy” tax steps are occurring now – the blueprint on 9/27, the budget resolutions, etc. However, reaching a consensus on rates, deductions, and deficits will be extremely difficult and this will become more apparent later in Oct and into Nov, around the same time as the ECB/BOE decisions).
Calendar of events to watch for the week of Mon Oct 9
Calendar for the week of 10/9 – overall it should be a relatively slow week although a few items are in focus. The current reflation emphasis makes the US CPI on Fri 10/13 prob. the single most important eco data point of the week but there are other numbers in focus (German trade/IP for Aug and China imports/exports for Sept). The CQ3 earnings season kicks off in earnest with the banks on Thurs and Friday. Away from scheduled events, media reports suggest Catalonia could formally declare independence on Mon (although this could easily be delayed following court challenges and as the region’s leaders seek a settlement w/Madrid) while the White House may unveil its infrastructure spending blueprint during the week of 10/9 (http://bit.ly/2wwiop9). South Korean security officials have warned that North Korea may fire additional missiles between 10/10 and 10/18 while Trump’s Fed chair selection could come soon (media reports suggest Powell and Warsh are the two frontrunners). Trump is expected to deliver an Iranian policy speech on/around Thurs 10/12 during which he will declare the nuclear deal as no longer being in the US national interest. HON has said it will announce its formal portfolio review decision prior to earnings (media reports, including on CNBC, suggest it will retain its aerospace unit).
Calendar for Mon 10/9 – the day should be pretty quiet owing to the US Columbus Day holiday (equities will be open but fixed income is closed). The focus will be on the China FX reserve numbers for Sept (Fri night/Sat morning 10/7), the China Caixin services PMI for Sept (Sun night/Mon morning), Germany’s industrial production for Aug (2amET), and earnings (LVMH reports results after the European close).
Calendar for Tues 10/10 – the focus will be on the German trade figures for Aug (2amET), a bunch of analyst meetings (including TECD, Santander, WDAY, and WMT), the PG shareholder meeting (at which the Trian/Peltz board seat request will be voted on), and earnings (CUDA after the close).
Calendar for Wed 10/11 – the focus will be on the US JOLTs report for Aug (10amET), Fed minutes from the 9/20 meeting (2pmET), analyst meetings (KR), and earnings (DAL, BLK, FAST, and OZRK before the open).
Calendar for Thurs 10/12 – the focus will be on Eurozone IP for Aug (5amET), the US PPI for Sept (8:30amET), Trump’s Iran speech, analyst meetings (BOX, HPQ, LSCC, and WDC), and earnings (C, DPZ, JPM, LNN, Sky PLC, and Tata Consultancy pre-open).
Calendar for Fri 10/13 – the focus will be on China’s imports/exports for Sept (Thurs night/Fri morning), the US CPI for Sept (8:30amET), US retail sales for Sept (8:30amET), the Michigan Confidence numbers for Oct (10amET), US business inventories for Aug (10amET), analyst meetings (SAFM), and earnings (BAC, DRFG, FHN, FRC, JBHT, Man Group, PNC, and WFC pre-open).
Catalysts – big events to watch over the coming months
China mainland markets closed Mon 10/2-Fri 10/6 for the National Day holiday.
US jobs report for Sept – Fri 10/6.
US infrastructure spending - the Trump White House may unveil its long-anticipated infrastructure plan during the week of 10/9 according to House Transport chairman Rep. Bill Shuster.
North Korea - South Korea’s national security adviser Chung Eui-yong said he expected Pyongyang to act around Oct. 10 and 18 (Reuters).
WMT analyst meeting – Tues 10/10 (note that KR has an analyst meeting the next day, Wed 10/11).
PG shareholder meeting – Tues 10/10 (decision to be made on Peltz’s board seat request).
Fed minutes – minutes from the 9/20 meeting will be released Wed 10/11. 2pmET.
HON – the co will announce its portfolio review decision before earnings in Oct.
Iran - Trump is planning to deliver an Iran policy speech on 10/12 and he is expected to say that the landmark 2015 nuclear deal is no longer in the U.S. national security interest (AP)
Bank earnings – the CQ3 earnings season kicks off w/Citigroup and JPM Thurs morning 10/12 while BAC, PNC, and WFC all report Fri 10/13.
US inflation – the Sept CPI will hit Fri 10/13.
IMF/World Bank - 2017 Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund. Oct 13-15 in Washington.
CQ3 earnings – the week of Mon 10/16 is the first busy week of the CQ3 reporting season.
Fed chair decision during the week of 10/16? Based on Trump’s “two to three” weeks comment (on Fri 9/29), his decision on a Fed chair could come as soon as the week of 10/16 (this week is also the first busy period of the CQ3 earnings season, the deadline for Trump to rule on the Iran nuclear deal, and the beginning of the China National Congress on 10/18). Media reports suggest the Fed chair frontrunners are Warsh and Powell followed by Yellen and Cohn.
China - the National Congress of the Communist Party of China starts Oct 18.
China Q3 GDP and Sept retail sales, IP, and FAI (Wed night/Thurs morning) – Thurs morning 10/19.
EU leaders hold summit in Brussels. Oct 19-20. Brussels.
Japan – the country will hold snap elections on Sun 10/22.
Flash PMIs for Oct – Tues 10/24
ECB meeting/press conf. Thurs Oct 26. The ECB is expected to provide guidance on LSAP tapering at this meeting (St assumes LSAP drops from EU60B now to EU40B w/6 month extension).
1949: The Year That Set the Course of Chinese-American Relations – NYT http://nyti.ms/2z2hGSv M&A/Strategic Actions
Brooklyn Nets – multiple suitors are in talks to buy a 49% stake in the NBA deal. Mikhail Prokhorov is seeking a valuation of >$2B for the entire team. NY Post. http://nyp.st/2y3KFY0 o Brooklyn Nets – BABA denied that its vice chairman, Joseph Tsai, was in talks to buy a stake in the Nets – Reuters http://reut.rs/2yuCBRa
GIMO – Elliot’s takeover talks w/the company have ground to a halt according to Reuters over price disagreements – Reuters http://reut.rs/2fNCepo
HON - according to the WSJ, HON is pursuing an acquisition of Evoqua Water Tech in a deal that could be worth $3B (http://on.wsj.com/2yseCSp).
HPQ, Samsung – China said it will approve HPQ’s purchase of Samsung’s printer business – Reuters http://reut.rs/2y06khP
JWN buyout not completely dead – the Nordstrom family is exploring a new deal structure w/Leonard Green that would involve less debt. The family is trying to raise more equity (although it isn’t clear where the money will come from). WSJ. http://on.wsj.com/2ggTvbh
PENN, PNK - the WSJ reported (during trading on Thurs http://on.wsj.com/2xjE24p) on merger talks between PENN and PNK (the firms have been unable to agree to terms but PENN is still interested in buying PNK).
Retailers helped through bankruptcy process – Reuters notes that many retailers are obtaining help during the bankruptcy process w/many being allowed to stay in business w/their store bases largely intact – Reuters http://reut.rs/2y3NcAN
SNCR - On October 4, 2017, SNCR and Siris determined to restart discussions regarding a potential transaction. Specifically, Siris is offering to buy Intralinks for $915MM cash, invest $185MM for a convert worth ~20% of SNCR’s common shares, and cancel the ~6MM SNCR common shares it now owns.
SUM, ASHG – SUM has made a rival bid for ASHG as it looks to scuttle the existing Ash Grove-CRH PLC transaction. Ash Grove’s board said the offer could result in a superior proposal and that it would engage in talks with the third party. Bloomberg.
Unilever – the co is seeking PE bids for its spreads business by 10/19; a sale could be worth $8B – Reuters http://reut.rs/2fNDYPe
Full catalyst list
Fri Oct 6 – German factory orders for Aug. 2amET.
Fri Oct 6 – US jobs report for Sept. 8:30amET.
Fri Oct 6 – US wholesale inventories/trade sales for Aug. 10amET.
Fri Oct 6 – US consumer credit for Aug. 3pmET.
Fri Oct 6 – Fed speakers: Bostic, Kaplan, Bullard
Sat Oct 7 – China FX reserves for Sept (Fri night/Sat morning)
Mon Oct 9 – China Caixin services PMI for Sept (Sun night/Mon morning)
Mon Oct 9 – German industrial production for Aug. 2amET.
Mon Oct 9 – earnings after the European close: LVMH.
Mon Oct 9 – Columbus Day holiday in the US (equities will be open while fixed income is closed).
Tues Oct 10 – German trade balance for Aug. 2amET.
Tues Oct 10 – analyst meetings: TECD, Santander, WDAY, WMT
Tues Oct 10 – PG shareholder meeting
Tues Oct 10 – earnings after the close: CUDA
Wed Oct 11 – US JOLTs report for Aug. 10amET.
Wed Oct 11 – Fed minutes from the Sept 20 meeting (2pmET).
Wed Oct 11 – analyst meetings: KR
Wed Oct 11 – earnings before the open: BLK, DAL, FAST, OZRK.
Thurs Oct 12 – Eurozone industrial production for Aug. 5amET.
Thurs Oct 12 – US PPI for Sept. 8:30amET.
Thurs Oct 12 – analyst meetings: BOX, HPQ, LSCC, WDC.
Thurs Oct 12 – earnings before the open: C, DPZ, JPM, LNN, Sky PLC, Tata Consultancy.
Thurs Oct 12 – earnings after the close: EXFO
Fri Oct 13 – China imports/exports for Sept (Thurs night/Fri morning)
Fri Oct 13 – US CPI for Sept. 8:30amET.
Fri Oct 13 – US retail sales for Sept. 8:30amET.
Fri Oct 13 – US Michigan Sentiment for Oct. 10amET.
Fri Oct 13 – US business inventories for Aug. 10amET.
Fri Oct 13 – analyst meetings: SAFM
Fri Oct 13 – earnings before the open: BAC, DRFG, FHN, FRC, JBHT, Man Group, PNC, WFC.
Mon Oct 16 – China CPI/PPI for Sept (Sun night/Mon morning)
Mon Oct 16 – Eurozone trade balance for Aug. 5amET.
Mon Oct 16 – earnings before the open: SCHW
Mon Oct 16 – earnings after the close: BRO, IEX, NFLX, Rio Tinto
Tues Oct 17 – Eurozone Sept auto registrations. 2amET.
Tues Oct 17 – German ZEW survey results for Oct. 5amET.
Tues Oct 17 – US import prices for Sept. 8:30amET.
Tues Oct 17 – US industrial production for Sept. 9:15amET.
Tues Oct 17 – US NAHB housing index for Oct. 10amET.
Tues Oct 17 – earnings before the open: BMI, CMA, CSX, GS, GWW, HOG, JNJ, MS, Pearson, PLD, Remy Cointreau, UNH
Tues Oct 17 – earnings after the close: ADTN, BHP, CP, CREE, IBM, LRCX, NAVI.
Wed Oct 18 – US housing starts for Sept. 8:30amET.
Wed Oct 18 – US building permits fro Sept. 8:30amET.
Wed Oct 18 – US Beige Book. 2pmET.
Wed Oct 18 – earnings before the open: ABT, Akzo Nobel, MTB, NTRS, USB
Wed Oct 18 – earnings after the close: AA, AXP, BHE, CCI, CCK, EBAY, LLNW, SLG, TCBI
Thurs Oct 19 – China Q3 GDP and Sept retail sales, IP, and FAI (Wed night/Thurs morning)
Tues Oct 24 – earnings after the close: AKAM, AMP, CMG, COF, DFS, ESRX, IRBT, T, TSS, TXN.
Wed Oct 25 – US durable goods for Sept. 8:30amET.
Wed Oct 25 – US FHFA home price index for Aug. 9amET.
Wed Oct 25 – US new home sales for Sept. 10amET.
Wed Oct 25 – earnings before the open: ALK, ALLY, ANTM, Antofagasta, AOS, BA, BAX, Dassault Systemes, DPS, FCX, FLIR, Fresnillo, HBAN, Heineken, IP, IR, KO, LEA, LH, Lloyds Banking Group, NDAQ, NSC, NYCB, Peugeot, TMO, TUP, V, WBA, WEC.
Wed Oct 25 – earnings after the close: ABX, ACGL, AFL, AMGN, CLGX, DLR, FFIV, FTI, KIM, LSTR, NOW, ORLY, PKG, PLXS, RJF, TSCO, UNM, VAR, XLNX.
Thurs Oct 26 – US wholesale inventories for Sept. 8:30amET.
Thurs Oct 26 – US advance goods trade balance for Sept. 8:30amET.
Thurs Oct 26 – US pending home sales for Sept. 10amET.
Thurs Oct 26 – earnings before the open: Aixtron, ALLE, ALV, Anheuser Busch, APD, Bayer, BMY, BSX, BWA, CCMP, CELG, CHTR, CMCSA, CME, Deutsche Bank, ENTG, EQT, F, HLT, MMC, NEM, Nokia, ODFL, Santander, Schneider Electric, UNP, UPS, WM, XEL.
Thurs Oct 26 – earnings after the close: AIV, ATEN, CB, CDNS, EXPE, FLEX, FTNT, GILD, GOOG, HIG, INTC, LPLA, MSFT, NATI, PFG, SYK, VDSI, VRSN.
Fri Oct 27 – China Sept industrial profits (Thurs night/Fri morning).
Fri Oct 27 – US Q3 GDP, personal consumption, and core PCE for Q3. 8:30amET.
Fri Oct 27 – US Michigan Confidence numbers for Oct. 10amET.
Fri Oct 27 – earnings before the open: B, MRK, PSX, SC, TRU, Volkswagen, WY, XOM.
Mon Oct 30 – US personal income/spending and PCE for Sept. 8:30amET.
Mon Oct 30 – US Dallas Fed index for Oct. 10:30amET.
Mon Oct 30 – analyst meetings: CSX
Mon Oct 30 – earnings before the open: HSBC
Mon Oct 30 – earnings after the close: AVB, CGNX, RE, RTEC, VNO
Tues Oct 31 – US Employment Cost Index for Q3. 8:30amET.
Tues Oct 31 – US Case-Shiller home price index for Aug. 9amET.
Tues Oct 31 – US Chicago PMI for Oct. 9:45amET.
Tues Oct 31 – US Conference Board Sentiment readings for Oct. 10amET.
Tues Oct 31 – earnings before the open: ADM, AET, Airbus, AMT, Barclays, BNP, CMI, ECL, GGP, K, MA, OSK, PFE, XYL.
Tues Oct 31 – earnings after the close: APC, CHRW, CXO, WFT, X
Wed Nov 1 – US ADP jobs report for Oct. 8:15amET.
Wed Nov 1 – US Markit Manufacturing PMI for Oct. 9:45amET.
Wed Nov 1 – US Manufacturing ISM for Oct. 10amET.
Wed Nov 1 – US construction spending report for Sept. 10amET.
Wed Nov 1 – US auto sales for Oct.
Wed Nov 1 – FOMC meeting decision. 2pmET.
Wed Nov 1 – earnings before the open: AGN, APO, CLX, EL, GRMN, HFC, Novo Nordisk, ORBK, Standard Chartered, TAP, TRI.
Wed Nov 1 – earnings after the close: ALL, BHF, BXP, CAVM, CSGS, FB, LNC, MANT, MET, MUSA, OXY, PRU, QCOM, ULTI, XPO.
Thurs Nov 2 – US nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs for Q3. 8:30amET.
Thurs Nov 2 – earnings before the open: ADP, AN, BCE, CI, Credit Suisse, DISCA, H, ICE, Royal Dutch Shell, Sanofi, Swiss Re, WRK.
Thurs Nov 2 – earnings after the close: AAPL, AIG, CBS, CRUS, FLR, HLF, RMAX, SBUX, UNIT.
Fri Nov 3 – US jobs report for Oct. 8:30amET.
Fri Nov 3 – US trade balance for Sept. 8:30amET.
Fri Nov 3 – US factory orders and durable goods orders for Sept. 10amET.
Fri Nov 3 – US non-manufacturing ISM for Oct. 10amET.
Tues Nov 7 – US JOLTs jobs report for Sept. 10amET.
Tues Nov 7 – US consumer credit for Sept. 3pmET.
Thurs Nov 9 – US wholesale trade sales/inventories for Sept. 10amET.
Fri Nov 10 – US Michigan Confidence preliminary numbers for Nov. 10amET.
Tues Nov 14 – US PPI for Oct. 8:30amET.
Wed Nov 15 – US CPI for Oct. 8:30amET.
Wed Nov 15 – US Empire Manufacturing for Nov. 8:30amET.
Wed Nov 15 – US retail sales for Oct. 8:30amET.
Wed Nov 15 – US business inventories for Sept. 10amET.
Thurs Nov 16 – US import prices for Oct. 8:30amET.
Thurs Nov 16 – US industrial production for Oct. 9:15amET.
Thurs Nov 16 – US NAHB housing index for Nov. 10amET.
Fri Nov 17 – US housing starts and building permits for Oct. 8:30amET.
Mon Nov 20 – US Leading Index for Oct. 10amET.
Tues Nov 21 – US existing home sales for Oct. 10amET.
Wed Nov 22 – US durable goods for Oct. 8:30amET.
Wed Nov 22 – US final Michigan Confidence numbers for Nov. 10amET.
Wed Nov 22 – FOMC 11/1 meeting minutes. 2pmET.
Fri Nov 24 – US flash PMIs for Nov. 9:45amET.
J.P. Morgan Market Intelligence is a product of the Institutional Equities Sales and Trading desk of J.P. Morgan Securities LLC and the intellectual property thereof. It is not a product of the Research Department and is intended for distribution to institutional and professional customers only and is not intended for retail customer use. It may not be reproduced, redistributed or transmitted, in whole or in part, without J.P. Morgan’s consent. Any unauthorized use is strictly prohibited.
Major Headlines (Coindesk) Early Investors in Telegram Crypto See 400% Returns — But Buyers Risk It All Bitcoin’s Price is Up More Than $1K Since Bakkt Futures News This ICO Startup Didn’t Die During Crypto Winter. It Has DAI to Thank World Bank Sells $33.8 Million More of Its Private Ethereum Blockchai Bonds ‘Youngest Bitcoin Millionaire’ Willing to Stake it All on Metal Pay BitMEX Exchanges to Block Users in Hong Kong, Bermuda and Seychelles Crypto Exchange Binance Announces New Stablecoin Initiative TakeawayEarly Investors in Telegram Crypto See 400% Returns — But Buyers Risk It All • Telegram’s long-awaited blockchain, Telegram Open Network, is said to be scheduled to launch Oct. 31, but the yet-to-be-issued gram tokens are already trading in an unauthorized secondary market. • Telegram has yet to publicly or formally acknowledge the project, but investors in last year’s $1.7 billion token offering, widely publicized in the press, are selling their gram allocations via OTC desks, exchanges and special-purpose vehicles. • Purchasing tokens this way might be risky, investors warn, as Telegram specifically prohibited investors from re-selling their allocations under penalty of terminating the purchase contract. • Secondary buyers may end up with nothing. Bitcoin’s Price is Up More Than $1K Since Bakkt Futures News • Bitcoin has risen by $1,000 since Friday’s announcement by Bakkt exchange that it will be launching physically-settled bitcoin futures on Sept. 23. The price rise has neutralized the bearish setup on the intraday charts seen last week. • The gains could be extended further to $11,000, as the hourly chart is reporting a bullish continuation pattern. • The weekly chart continues to call a deeper pullback to $9,000 with key moving averages (MAs) producing a first bearish crossover since February. • A weekly close above $12,000 is needed for a complete bullish revival. This ICO Startup Didn’t Die During Crypto Winter. It Has DAI to Thank • Monolith turned a $16.9 million ICO into $25 million-worth of assets by riding the bull market of 2017 then taking out DAI loans. • This DAI strategy is increasingly common among ethereum-centric startups. • MakerDAO and Monolith are now collaborating to connect DeFi loans to a European Visa debit card. • Ether fans can spend crypto with a Visa debit card because Monolith liquidates designated funds on the back-end, providing the merchant with fiat. World Bank Sells $33.8 Million More of Its Private Ethereum Blockchain Bonds • The World Bank raised another $50 million AUD ($33.8 million U.S.) by selling the “blockchain-operated debt instrument” (bond-i) • World Bank’s head of funding: “We are happy to see the continued, strong support and collaboration from investors and partners.The World Bank’s innovation and experience in the capital markets is key to working with our member countries to increase digitization to boost productivity in their economies and accelerate progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals.”. ‘Youngest Bitcoin Millionaire’ Willing to Stake it All on Metal Pay • Metallicus, the startup behind the peer-to-peer payments platform Metal Pay, received an undisclosed angel investment from the youngest bitcoin millionaire, Erik Finman. • Metal Pay has processed approximately $11 million in total payments from nearly 130,000 registered users across 38 states. • Finman staked a modest amount of bitcoin to finance the development of the banking and exchange ecosystem, he said, which currently holds approximately $2 million in crypto and fiat on the platform. BitMEX Exchanges to Block Users in Hong Kong, Bermuda and Seychelles • BitMEX has added three Bermuda, Hong Kong, and the Seychelles to its list of total trade access restrictions • “The increased involvement of regulators with all the major players in the industry is not only to be expected, it is to be welcomed. It is the mission of good regulators to ensure that honest citizens are not being cheated . . . For this reason, we have decided to restrict access to BitMEX for users in the jurisdictions in which HDR-affiliated employees and offices are located.” Crypto Exchange Binance Announces New Stablecoin Initiative • Binance has announced that it’s launching a project that will develop cryptocurrencies and digital assets pegged to fiat currencies around the world. • Binance said it’s seeking to create new partnerships with governments, enterprises and cryptocurrency and blockchain firms to assist the effort. • Binance co-founder Yi He :“We believe that in the near and long term, stablecoins will progressively replace traditional fiat currencies in countries around the world, and bring a new and balanced standard of the digital economy. We hope to achieve a vision, that is, to reshape the world financial system, allow countries to have more tangible financial services and infrastructures, protect their financial security and increase the economic efficiency of countries.” (All citations of the News Digest are taken from Coindesk.)
I've been working on a bot for crypto subs like /r/bitcoin for a few days now. Say hello to crypto_bot!
Hey guys, I've been working on crypto_bot for some time now. It provides a bunch of features that I hope will enhance your experience on /bitcoin (and any other subreddit). You can call it by mentioning it in a comment. I started working on this a few days ago. I'm constantly adding new features and will update this post when I do, but if you're interested I'll post all updates and some tips at /crypto_bot. Please either comment here, message me, or post there if you'd like to report a bug, request a feature, or offer feedback. There's also one hidden command :) You can call multiple commands in one comment. Here's a description of the commands you can use:
Responds with the USD price of one bitcoin from an average of six of the top bitcoin exchanges (BTC-E, Bitstamp, Bitfinex, Coinbase, Kraken, Cryptsy).
Responds with the USD price of one bitcoin at seven exchanges (all of the ones listed above, plus LocalBitcoins). Also lists the average at the bottom.
Responds with the USD price of one bitcoin from [exchange] (any of the seven listed above).
Responds with the USD price of one litecoin, or the price of 1 doge and 1,000 doge.
crypto_bot litecoin|ltc [exchange]
Responds with the USD price of one litecoin from BTC-E, Bitfinex, Kraken, or Cryptsy.
Responds with the price of one bitcoin in the specified currency. Available currencies (symbols): JPY, CNY, SGD, HKD, CAD, NZD, AUD, CLP, GBP, DKK, SEK, ISK, CHF, BRL, EUR, RUB, PLN, THB, KRW, TWD.
crypto_bot [about|info] [arg]
Responds with a short description about [arg], as well as a link to an external site (Wikipedia, bitcoin.it, and some others) for more information. You can list multiple arguments and get a description for each. Available arguments: bitcoin, block chain, transaction, address, genesis, satoshi, mining, confirmation, coinbase, gox, cold wallet, hot wallet.
Responds with calculations and information about how a miner would do with the above data (mining calculator). The only required field is mining speed. Order of the arguments does not matter. Everything other than hashrate defaults to the following if not given: w (watts): 0, kwh ($kilowatt cost/hour): 0, difficulty: current network difficulty, hc$ (hardware cost): $0, $: current bitcoin price in usd (according to Coinbase), % (pool fee): 0. The calculator does not account for nor allow for input of the increase/decrease of difficulty over time, though I may add this feature soon. Working hashing speeds: h/s, kh/s, mh/s, gh/s, th/s, ph/s. Example usage: "crypto_bot calc 30th/s 10w .12kwh hc$55 1.5%" (to make it easier to remember, th/s can also be inputted as ths). This calls the bot with a hashrate of 30 th/s, electricity usage of 10w, a cost of $.12 kWh, a hardware cost of $55, and a pool fee of 1.5%.
crypto_bot number of btc <$amount to convert> [bp$bitcoin price]
Responds with the number of bitcoins you could buy with <$amount to convert>. If the comment specifies a [bp$bitcoin price], it calculates it with that exchange rate. Otherwise, it uses the rate from Coinbase. Example usage: "crypto_bot $419.29 bp$180.32" This calculates how many bitcoins you can buy if you have $419.29 and the bitcoin exchange rate is $180.32.
Signs a message in the bitcoin block chain in a transaction using OP_RETURN. The message must be less than 40 characters. Example usage: "SignMessage! "Post messages in the block chain!"" I hope you find this bot useful! Again, if you have any questions or comments, please either comment on this post, message me, or post on /crypto_bot. Update 1 (June 24, 2015, 17:35): The bot now responds with information if you post a link to a block, transaction, or address on Blockchain.info in a comment, even if you don't call it. For example, if I wrote "https://blockchain.info/block/0000000000000000126448be07fb1f82af19fbbf07dd7e07ebcd08d42c2660cb" in a comment, it would respond with information about block #362,377. Update 2 (July 10, 2015, 1:59): The bot now has two additional commands: "unconfirmed transactions" (or "unconfirmed tx") and "explain transaction delay" (or "explain tx delay"). The first command responds with the number of unconfirmed transactions, and the second explains why transactions might take extra time to confirm. Update 3 (August 24, 2015, 1:34): The bot now responds in a better way than before when transaction ids or addresses are posted. Before, it only responded when the transaction id or address was used in a link to Blockchain.info. Now the bot will respond whenever a transaction id or address is posted at all; a link to Blockchain.info is no longer necessary. Update 4 (August 27, 2015, 3:00): The bot can now sign messages in the Bitcoin block chain using OP_RETURN.
Stablecoins: Captain Marvel That Saves Floundering Economies
[Source] ‘The Holy Grail of Cryptocurrency’, ‘The New and Improved Bitcoin’. This superhero is known by many names and has created hype so unsurmountable, even Captain Marvel find it a struggle to compete with. Yes, I am talking about stablecoins and the heroic powers it possesses. The release of JPM Coin by banking behemoth JP Morgan on Feb. 14 sent a clear message to every player in the traditional finance industry: cryptocurrency is here to stay and it’s time to get in the game. The announcement came as a surprise to crypto enthusiasts mostly because its CEO, Jamie Dimon, has long been notorious for his anti-Bitcoin stance. What was it that made Jamie Dimon change his tune? Well, the answer is simple: cryptocurrencies are the gateway to an economy immune to hyperinflation, and here is the reason why: Its Supply Is Transparent, Limited And Very Much Predictable Processing img 3tir5pszv0k21... Broadly speaking, inflation can be classified into two categories: (a) monetary inflation: increased money circulation (b) price inflation: increased price levels When the economy hits rock bottom, the conventional response from the government almost always come along the lines of increasing money supply. Venezuela and Zimbabwe are two of such examples. As time culminates, the notes printed become virtually worthless and prices spike, leading to extreme inflation. In the case of cryptocurrencies, supply control is far from the grubby hands of political elites. Not only is supply fully decentralised and limited by codes in the coins’ protocols, the total in circulation is well within grasp which makes for accurate projection of its demand and supply. Additionally, any rule or regulation made is transparent to the public at any point in time. If the success of fiat-based economies depends on central banks and their opaque policies, then the crypto economy mitigates this risk by removing the need to trust them altogether. However, cryptocurrencies have their drawback - they are extremely volatile. Hence, the need for a superhero to swoop in and save the day: stablecoins. Not just any other stablecoin but the stablecoin 1SG. Why 1SG? https://preview.redd.it/oj06fgh9w0k21.jpg?width=677&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0be1ded368c1c60bf078da9f59654509c89d9949 Stablecoins as we all know are digital tokens pegged with a stable asset to ensure its low volatility. These assets can range from material goods like gold to fiat currencies like the USD. Currently, most stablecoins saturating the market such as USDT, TrueUSD, USDC, Dai and Tether are pegged to the USD. This presents a disadvantage as the sheer volume of stablecoins pegged to the USD may adversely affect the price of the US dollar, especially with a looming dollar inflation ahead due to an increase in deficit spending and printing of treasuries. 1SG, on the contrary, is a stablecoin pegged to the national currency of Singapore, SGD. Singapore has long been dubbed the “Asian Tiger” for its aggressive economic growth throughout the years. With GDP records climbing off the charts and an annual increase in GDP with little financial debt, SGD is proving to last through the greater economic crises and has even emerged on equal footing with the Australian Dollar (AUD) earlier this year. With the security of the SGD, and its high liquidity and frictionless spendability, 1SG is definitely a stablecoin too good to be missed. What are you waiting for? It’s time to start your journey with 1SG today! About 1SG:1SG is a stable coin, issued by the Mars Blockchain Group which overcomes the problems of today’s cryptocurrencies, while providing open, transparent, efficient KYC/AML process. With the key features of stable value and high liquidity, Mars Blockchain is a start-up committed to becoming a leading stable coin in global cryptocurrency market. 1SG circumvents the volatility of other major cryptocurrencies by maintaining a fixed peg to $1 SGD through financial markets.For more details, check outwww.1.sgFor more information on 1SG, keep up with its following social media:Telegram: https://t.me/SGoneReddit: https://www.reddit.com/use1-SG/Twitter: https://twitter.com/1SG_2018Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/1sg_sg/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_p_8y1geOe0lmB4F3i6FpgTo trade 1SG now, head over to these exchange platforms:P2PB2B: https://p2pb2b.io/BitMart: https://www.bitmart.com/TOP.ONE: https://top.one/indexKryptono: https://kryptono.exchange/k/homeOEX: https://www.oex.com/index
Sign-up for Binance Jersey Fiat Exchange At this time, the digital currency exchange market is filled with a wide variety of choices, therefore choosing the right exchange or trading platform can be quite a headache for both novice and veteran cryptocurrency users. Binance is a popular cryptocurrency exchange which was started in China but recently moved their headquarters to the crypto-friendly Island of Malta in the EU. Binance is popular for its crypto to crypto exchange services. While the company is still fairly new on the market ( it launched last year ), it has managed to gain a lot of popularity thanks to its impressive number of Initial Coin Offering listings, professional attitude and friendly CEO and also due to its low trading fees. Binance Website In our review, we will attempt to outline everything that you must know about Binance, including how it works, the crypto pairs that you can exchange, trading fees/limits, security aspects, and customer support. Visit Binance » How the Exchange Works Contents [Show] Those who visit Binance for the first time will quickly notice that the platform offers two options for digital currency trading- basic and advanced. Neither the basic, nor the advanced versions are bound to be easy to use for complete beginners. However, anyone with a background in digital currencies and with a bit of knowledge into how exchanges work should be able to use the platform and its different services. The main difference between the basic and the advanced version is that the advanced one offers more-in-depth technical analysis of digital currency value over time. At this time, the dashboard for the basic version offers several graphs and charts for the pairs that you’re trading, order books, and trade history. 3Commas This is what the basic view looks like : Binance Trading View The Basic view is nicely designed and well laid out, all the information you need is clearly presented with prices on the left, graphs in the center along with the buy and sell boxes and the trade history is presented on the right so you can quickly see what the latest trade prices were. And this is what the advanced view looks like: Advanced View The advanced view uses a dark theme and makes the trading charts larger and the latest trade prices are displayed on the right with the buy sell boxes underneath. Which you choose is a matter of preference really, I like the lighter colored basic view and find the layout a little easier to use. Binance Signup & Login To use the exchange, users will first have to create an account. The process behind this is fairly simple and straight-forward and you don’t have to verify your account for level 1 which is a 2BTC daily withdrawal limit. For level 2 which allows up to 100BTC per day, you need to upload a photo ID and wait till you are approved. There are higher limits still, but you will need to contact them directly to arrange that. Time for verification can vary depending on how busy the site support staff are, so make sure to plan ahead if you wish to withdraw larger amounts and make sure this step is complete before depositing and trading large sums on the exchange. ID Verification Now, that this is out of the way, users can go ahead and fund their Binance account. While you can choose from a multitude of digital currencies, it is recommended that you stick with either BTC or ETH. To fund your account visit the “Funds” > “Deposits / Withdrawals” link at the top of the site and find the currency you wish to send, then click the “Deposit” button next to it which will then you give you the wallet address. You can then send your funds to this address to begin trading on the platform, depending on which currency you deposit it will take different times to show up as this is reliant on that currencies blockchain. Some currencies like Ethereum are faster than Bitcoin which can take a while. Binance Wallets Now that your account is funded, you can simply start trading, exchanging and investing in various digital currency pairs. Binance offers plenty of choices, as they support all major digital currencies, but also numerous ICO listings and their respective tokens. At this time, the platform can only be used to generate limit and market orders. This has been considered a disadvantage by some, as many expected trading options that would be more advanced. Following the placement of your order, simply wait for it to be fulfilled according to the terms that have been set. How to Trade on Binance Trading on Binance is fairly straight-forward if you have used any other cryptocurrency exchange before. To get started, make sure you have deposited some funds – there are options for trading pairs in BTC, ETH, BNB and USDT. Once you have your funds, at the top right menu, select “Exchange” > “Basic” or “Advanced” to load the trading screen. We will be using the Basic view. Binance Trading View On the right hand side, of the screen select a tab from BTC, ETH, BNB or USDT this is what you will be trading in. Then choose your desired currency from the list. You can also search here and you can create a favorites list by clicking the star next to any currencies. Choose currency to buy Once your desired currency has loaded, take note of the left-hand column which shows prices that people are willing to sell at in the top half in red and prices people are willing to buy at in green in the bottom half. The number in the middle shows the last sale price. Buy and Sell Prices Now to place a buy order, use the center box underneath the graphs and you will see the buy box is in green on the right. You can manually enter a price you wish to purchase at, but a better way is to click a number on the left-hand column. You can then enter the amount of the currency you wish to buy or click the 25%, 50%, 75% or 100% buttons which will fill it with an amount based on how much of the buying currency you have ( in this case BTC ). Buy Order Once your order is placed it will be show underneath in the “Open Orders” section until it is filled. At that point your new currency will be available under the “Deposits / Withdrawals” menu where you can withdraw it to the wallet of your choice. Supported Crypto Currencies Binance has often been praised for its wide variety of support coins. Traders can use the platform for multiple digital currencies, including, but not limited to Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin Gold, Ethereum, Ethereum Classic, EOS, Dash, LiteCoin, NEO, GAS, Zcash, Dash, Ripple and more. As mentioned before, Binance also supports numerous tokens, as part of ICO listings. With this in mind, traders can use the platform to trade these tokens for a profit as well. Binance is currently very quick to add new coins and tokens after their ICO which usually means you can purchase them cheaply which allows for greater profit down the road. They currently offer trading pairs in BTC, BNB, ETH and USDT. Binance Markets Binance ICO & BNB Coin Another thing to note is the Binance Coin, which was issued during their own ICO. The Binance coin can be used to pay fees and it will also feature in their future plans to create a Decentralized Exchange where it will form one of the key base currencies. Purchasing the Binance coin itself looks like a good investment for the future as the exchange plans to use their profits to buy back a portion of the coins every quarter and destroy them: hence decreasing the supply and making them more valuable for holders. Every quarter, we will use 20% of our profits to buy back BNB and destroy them, until we buy 50% of all the BNB (100MM) back. All buy-back transactions will be announced on the blockchain. We eventually will destroy 100MM BNB, leaving 100MM BNB remaining. Binance BNB Coin If you’d like to read more about the BNB Coin, check out our indepth guide. Binance Fees & Limits At the time of writing, Binance charges an average fee of 0.1% on each trade that a user makes. Those who choose to pay via the Binance token can get a 50% discount on the trading fee, which is absolutely great news. These are surely some of the lowest fees available at this time. Withdrawal fees tend to vary for each digital currency. For instance, 0.0005 is charged for Bitcoin withdrawals, and 0.005 is charged for ETH withdrawals. Here are some examples to give you an idea of the fees you will be paying for withdrawals: COIN CODE Fee Unit Binance Coin BNB 1 BNB Bitcoin BTC 0.001 BTC Ethereum ETH 0.01 ETH Litcoin LTC 0.01 LTC Neo NEO Free NEO Qtum QTUM 0.01 QTUM Status SNT 10 SNT Bancor BNT 1.2 BNT Eos EOS 0.7 EOS Bitcoin Cash BCC 0.0005 BCC Gas GAS Free GAS USDT USDT 50 USDT When it comes down to transfer limits, there is no limit on the number of coins that you can deposit. However, without getting verified, users are limited in terms of how much they can withdraw. Verification will establish you as a level two users, thus lifting these limits and providing a lot more freedom when using the platform. The verification process requires users to provide Binance with their full name, country, gender, a photo of passport/government-issued ID, and even a selfie with the passport. Binance Competitions A unique feature of Binance you will notice is that they regularly hold competitions with some amazing prizes. Some examples of competitions in the past include Waves and Tron. The waves competition gave away 20,000 Waves to Traders based on how many trades they have made of this currency. The other competition for Tron (TRX) gave participants the chance to win a Maserati car, Mercedes Benz car, a Macbook Pro or a iPhone X. Again, the winners were the people with the highest trading volume of this currency. The current rankings show that the person in first place had over 358 BTC volume in trades so you will need to be a whale to be in with a chance of winning first prize. There are other regular competitions though, so keep an eye on the site for your chance to enter. Is Binance Safe? While Binance is one of the newest cryptocurrency exchanges available on the market, it has quickly managed to attain a high level of trust from its users and the digital currency community. However, the exchange fails to provide users with enough information on how the funds are being secured, yet we like to believe that security is taken seriously. Two-factor authentication is available and is always a nice sight. It is however known that the platform offers a multi-tier and multi-tier system architecture. Update: In March 2018 Binance suffered a hacking attempt. The hackers tried to pull off an audacious move which was luckily caught by the automated systems in place at the exchange. For months the hackers had been accumulating people’s logins via a phishing website and secretly installing API access on the affected accounts. They then struck, converting all the victims altcoins to BTC and purchasing Viacoin, pumping the coin to a huge price and then selling their own supply of Viacoin at the high point, before trying to withdraw the BTC to their own wallets. Luckily no one lost funds as the hack was caught and the only people to lose out were the hackers, whose funds will be donated to charity. As this hack was made possible by people entering their site logins and 2FA details into a fake website, you should always make sure you are on the correct Binance url before logging in. We recommend you bookmark the site and only use that to access it, never click links from emails, Twitter, Telegram etc. This event has done a lot to instill confidence around Binance, not only did their automated processes catch the attempted hack before anyone lost any funds, they have since offered a $250,000 bounty to anyone who can help catch the hackers. Throughout this event, Binance acted exemplary and have been praised for their swift action in resolving this. Binance Customer Support For an exchange to be successful, it requires a great customer support team, capable of answering all user questions and requests in a timely manner. While the support area on Binance could use a little work, the team is responsive and capable of offering professional aid to traders in need. Support tickets are submitted via an online form featured on the website, and responses are made via email. There is currently no live chat support, nor a phone number where customers can get in touch with the support team. Binance Customer Support Other than the CS team, Binance offers a couple of FAQs and articles meant to help users get accustomed to the exchange and the way it works. Binance FAQs It should be noted that customer support on Binance has been known to be slow to respond to customer requests. This is a familiar phenomenon with most of large exchanges and is due simply to the volume of users and amount of support staff. The exchanges have grown at an explosive rate this past year and the companies simply haven’t been able to keep up with demand. Binance grew fast especially, going from launch to the largest exchange on the planet in a few short months. Support staff for exchanges have to be carefully vetted and trained due to the technicalities and security requirements involved – unlike other traditional companies where staff can be trained quicker. Some things to bare in mind are double-checking wallet addresses, make sure you are sending the correct cryptocurrency to it’s corresponding address on the site. Mixups with wallets are one of the biggest mistakes people make when using exchanges. Other things to note are, try a smaller test payment first if you plan to transfer large sums – it may cost you a little more in fees but will be worth it for peace of mind. If you do need to contact support, make sure you provide them with enough information to be able to help you first time. Include wallet addresses, times of transactions and any other information you think they might need to help speed up the process. The Move to Malta In March 2018, Japanese Newspaper Nikkei reported that Binance was trading in Japan and not following their official regulations. This caused some turbulence in the markets until Binance made an official announcement that they were going to be moving operations to the crypto-friendly island of Malta in Europe, stating : After reviewing several different locations, the company decided to invest in the European nation due to its existing pro-blockchain legislation and the stability that it offers financial technology companies through its regulatory framework. This is good news for the company and they even received a warm welcome from the Prime Minister of Malta on Twitter. Binance also announced that they were in talks with Maltese banks with the goal of providing Fiat transactions, meaning they can offer an on-ramp for fiat to crypto transactions in future along with fiat trading pairs on the exchange. More good news for Binance, it seems as their profile and reputation within the industry continues to grow. Launching a Decentralized Exchange More recent news for Binance and what seems like good news BNB holders is the fact that they are planning to launch their own Decentralized Exchange ( DEX ): “After extensively researching decentralized exchange frameworks and analyzing existing implementations, we believe significant improvements can be made in providing Binance users with a level of trading experience to which they are already accustomed. Centralized and Decentralized exchanges will co-exist in the near future, complementing each other, while also having interdependence.” The BNB digital asset, now an ERC-20 token, will migrate as the native token of that network and be used for paying the trading fees on the new exchange. Launching a Decentralized Stock Exchange More good news recently for Binance is that they are partnering with Neufund to build the world’s first Decentralized Stock Exchange. Alongside the Malta Stock Exchange, they are aiming to create a regulated and decentralized, global stock exchange for listing and trading tokenized securities alongside crypto-assets. According to CapLinked, the market cap of equity tokens alone is projected to reach $1 trillion by 2020 and thanks to the partnership with MSX, a subsidiary of the Malta Stock Exchange and Binance, Neufund will become the first end-to-end primary issuance platform for security tokens, in particular, equity tokens. It will secure ways for secondary trading of equity tokens and enable companies around the world to fundraise on Blockchain in a legal way while offering much-needed liquidity. This is more positive news for Binance as they aim to consolidate their position as the world’s number one Crypto Exchange. Binance Jersey Launch – Now Supports Fiat to Crypto As of 16th January 2019, Binance has announced the launch of a new Fiat to Crypto exchange named “Binance Jersey“. The trading platform is live and active and allows you to trade in fiat currencies such as euros and pound sterling, with Europe being their target market. We have now carried out a full review of Binance Jersey, so take a look for more indepth details about the new platform. Binance Jersey Visit Binance Jersey » At the time of writing they are only offering four trading pairs with more to follow soon: BTC / EUR BTC / GBP ETH / EUR ETH / GBP Supported Jurisdictions: Argentina Eswatini (formerly Swaziland) Latvia Romania Armenia Finland Liechtenstein Singapore Australia France Lithuania Slovakia Austria Germany Luxembourg Slovenia Azerbaijan Gibraltar Macau South Africa Belgium Greece Malta South Korea Brazil Hong Kong Mauritius Spain Bulgaria Hungary Mexico Sweden Canada Iceland Monaco Switzerland Chile Ireland Netherlands Turkey Croatia Israel New Zealand United Arab Emirates (UAE) Cyprus Italy Norway United Kingdom (UK) Czech Republic Jamaica Peru Uruguay Denmark Japan Poland Estonia Jersey Portugal Customers who wish to trade in the support fiat currencies will need to carry our KYC procedures by uploading their ID documents such as passport and driving license. Wei Zhou, Binance’s CFO released this statement about the launch : “Expanding the cryptocurrency exchange markets with fiat currencies in the European region is opening new economic opportunities for Europeans as well as freedom from looming Brexit uncertainty where the pound and euro are also in concern. Through Binance Jersey, we want to help bridge the crypto-fiat channel for Europe and the U.K. as part of our global expansion to support broader cryptocurrency adoption”. If you are familiar with trading on Binance, then you will feel at home on their new exchange – it uses the same engine and the trading screen is laid out in the same fashion with the option to choose between Basic and Advanced views: Binance Jersey Trading Screen To fund your account in fiat, you will first need to complete the KYC process, once that is done you can then deposit funds directly from your bank account by linking it from the Deposits screen. You can also fund your account with BTC or Ethereum. Once you have your account setup and bank account linked, you can also withdraw funds in fiat currency – this is great news as Binance is now able to offer a way for investors to cash out their cryptocurrencies. We have upgraded our review scores below and we feel this is a huge improvement to Binance’s Exchange offering, if they manage to roll this out to even more countries ( USA is currently excluded) it could be a game changer as people now have an extra, regulated fiat on and off ramp for their holdings. Buying Bitcoin with Australian Dollars On March 20, 2019, Binance announced the launch of Binance Lite Australia, the continent’s first fiat gateway to the world of cryptocurrencies which provides a secure, reliable, and easy to use way to buy Bitcoin with cash in Australia. The cash-to-Bitcoin brokerage service operates via a network of over 1,000 newsagents across Australia, and currently allows anyone to buy Bitcoin using Australian Dollars (AUD), and there are plans to include additional digital currencies and fiat purchasing options in the future. Users must first undergo account verification on Binance Lite, and after being successfully verified, users can place online orders and deposit cash at their nearest newsagent, in order to receive their pre-ordered Bitcoin. The Binance Lite brokerage service is operated by InvestbyBit, an independently operated subsidiary of the Binance.com cryptocurrency exchange. The service aims to simplify the process of purchasing cryptocurrencies and make digital assets such as Bitcoin readily accessible across Australia. Fees A 2.5% transaction fee (50% discount applied) plus GST on the transaction fee for each purchase is currently being charged as an introductory rate. Therefore, for a $50 order, the transaction fee will be $1.22 and the GST will be 10% of the transaction fee, which is $0.12. Limits The system is currently in its Beta phase, and the minimum purchase amount has been lowered to $30 with the maximum purchase amount capped at $1000. These limits may change over time and only multiples of $10 are being accepted, such as orders for $50, $60, $70 etc. Verification First time customers are required to go through a one-time Know Your Customer (KYC) document verification. When using the service, it’s necessary to follow the instruction prompts after the order page and go through the verification. In order to complete the verification process, it’s necessary to submit 1 or 2 forms of government issued ID documents as a Passport, Driver’s Licence, or Medicare card, in addition to your residential address. Any returning customers, who have already completed KYC verification, will be sent to the order summary page directly after opening a new order. Each account is linked to a mobile number, and users should ensure to use the mobile number provided when first completing the verification process. Anyone choosing to use a new mobile number will be required to complete the ID verification process once again. Paying by Debit and Credit Card Binance allows users to make debit and credit card payments for cryptocurrencies via a partnership with Simplex. It’s possible to purchase Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Litecoin (LTC), and XRP tokens by Visa and MasterCard and the benefits of using a debit or credit card on Binance include: Swift Transfers: Average 10-30 mins for cryptocurrency to reach your wallet Low Fees: only 3.5% per transaction or 10 USD, whichever is higher Convenient: Visa and MasterCard accepted In order to purchase the supported cryptocurrencies with a debit or credit card, users can first go through the official instructions page and then visit: https://www.binance.com/en/creditcard. Binance Launchpad and Initial Coin Offerings (IEOs) Binance Launchpad is the exchange’s token launch platform that aims to connect blockchain projects with the greater cryptocurrency community and enable projects to raise funds while interacting with Binance’s significant user base. In December 2017, the BREAD and GIFTO projects were able to hold successful token sales on Binance Launchpad and projects such as BitTorrent and Fetch.AI have also held successful launches in 2019. The platform makes use of the exchange’s native BNB token and rewards users for holding the token as well as allowing it to be used to participate in token sales. Read: What is an IEO? How Token Offerings Work on Binance Launchpad The ability to part in token offerings continues to attract a significant amount of users to Binance and it’s necessary to go through a number of steps in order to get used to the Launchpad platform. Anyone interested in a project should first go to the Binance Launchpad website and click on the project page and thoroughly research any of the projects on offer. If not already done, it’s also necessary to complete your Binance account verification, as token sales are carried out in compliance with the regulatory requirements in supported user jurisdictions. The Lottery System Binance Launchpad operates a lottery system which sees that the number of lottery tickets you can claim being dependant on the amount of BNB tokens you hold in your Binance account over a 20-day period leading up to the day of the lottery, with a maximum of up to 5 tickets per eligible account. The 20 days leading up to the lottery draw date is represented by X below, and by example, 100 ≤ X < 200 means that your BNB balance over the entire 20-day period is kept at 100 BNB or more, but does not exceed or reach 200 BNB. A snapshot at 0:00 AM (UTC) each day records each user’s BNB balance, and should your BNB balance drop below the minimum balance required on any given day during the 20-day period, they will be put into the lower threshold. For example, if User A holds 301 BNB for 19 of the 20 days but their balance drops to 299 BNB on one day. They will move to the lower threshold and only be eligible to claim 2 lottery tickets. Before the actual lottery date, users are given a 24 hour period to select how many lottery tickets they wish to enter, with the maximum number based upon their BNB holdings over the previous 20 days. Here, if a user submits an entry of 5 tickets and 2 tickets end up winning, they are committed to pay for 2 ticket allocations (in BNB) for the tokens. Each lottery ticket has a unique number with multiple lottery ticket holders, obtaining tickets with consecutive numbers. For example, when claiming 5 tickets, the tickets may be numbered 100010, 100011, 100012, 100013 and 100014. Once the 24 hour period ends and all tickets have been fully issued, Binance begins to randomly select multi-digit numbers. These are matched against the tail digits of all issued tickets in order to determine the list of winners. The selection process continues until the maximum number of winners are matched, and the respective BNB is deducted from each winning user’s balance, as soon as they are deemed a winner. Binance announces the maximum number of potential lottery ticket winners, and the allocation amount corresponding to each winning ticket in advance. Conclusion Currently, the matching engine of the exchange is capable of processing approximately 1.4 million orders each second, hence making it one of the fastest exchanges available on the market. Additionally, the exchange works on all forms of devices, including web, Android, WeChat, and HTML5. Non-English speakers will be happy to know that Binance offers multiple-language support in Chinese, English, Korean and Japanese. Based on everything that has been outlined so far, Binance is undoubtedly the leading Cryptocurrency Exchange and offers great fees and awesome digital currency support. As it reportedly has access to abundant resources and partners, chances are that Binance will continue to evolve and offer great digital currency exchange services to its clients. We are happy to recommend Binance and have added it to our list of the Best Cryptocurrency Exchanges. Update, April 2019: We have continued to update this review since Binance was first launched ( we were one of the first to offer a review of the platform at the time ). And as time has progressed, time and time again Binance have proven to be one of the very best, if not the best, exchanges available. Their CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ for short) has been part of the cryptocurrency community and shown high standards of integrity. Binance the exchange has continued to innovate, bringing new products to market and new options for purchasing and trading cryptocurrencies to all corners of the globe.
TL;DR Localbitcoins.com did 34,000 BTC a week ago, spread out over ~50 local currencies. Check out the graphs! Summary Last week I did a short analysis on trades at Localbitcoins.com (LBTC). I wasn't satisfied with the incomplete data Bitcoincharts.com gave me and decided to delve a bit deeper, with some nice data and graphs as a result! Problem LBTC doesn't publicly summarize their own statistics, they only provide historical trade data via their API. Bitcoincharts.com does a decent summary but only for ~15 currencies. Big LBTC currencies like CNY are not listed there. Questions The questions I wanted answered from LBTC's API was:
How many bitcoins are traded on LBTC each week exactly, and in which base currencies?
What is the weekly total transaction amount?
What is the weekly fiat volume, based on the USD/BTC exchange rate on LBTC?
What is the average value of each transaction in USD?
Which currencies pop out besides the obvious big ones (USD, GBP etc.)?
Approach So to get a complete picture I sharpened my Python skills and went straight into the LBTC API myself, scraping all currencies I could find and summing the numbers on a weekly basis, starting at 11 march 2013 (the start of LBTC trading). My aggregates differ from Bitcoincharts as I believe they take a different weekly cutoff point. As of right now, their new week with timestamp "2015-06-15" has already started even though in GMT terms it's still 2015-06-14. (My next week starts at 2015-06-15 00:00 UTC which I believe is in line with GMT?) In that light, the week isn't over yet, so my data will seem incomplete. To calculate total Fiat volume, I calculated the weighted USD price per BTC on LBTC and applied it to every currency. This is not ideal, however since USD accounts for over 50% of all LBTC trades, it's close enough. Note that the LBTC price per BTC is usually 5-10% higher than on centralized exchanges. Data
Conclusion I don't know how trustworthy LBTC is as a source. All I can say is, if it's data is valid, we're only at the beginning of global BTC acceptance -- which of course doesn't mean the growth we see now is going to continue. I'm personally very excited to see hard numbers for Kenya, Philippines, Ukraine, Venezuela etc. etc. even though those numbers are still very small. Thanks for your attention! Edited for layout Edit2 Thanks everyone for the kind remarks and generous tips, true gentlepeople all around! I will try to update the data now and then, but don't take my word for it :)
US Futures, Global Markets Slide, Spooked By Trump Trade Comments
US index futures and European shares slumped on Tuesday in a volatile, illiquid session punctuated by some headline confusion, while gains in Asian equities were limited after President Donald Trump said he still intends to go ahead with raising tariffs on China imports from 10% to 25% and that it was highly unlikely he would accept China’s request to refrain from the increase, just days before meeting with his counterpart Xi Jinping. While ES losses were modest, it is worth noting that earlier in the session, S&P futures swung sharply, gaining as much as 0.5%, then falling back into negative territory, after algos misinterpreted comments from China foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang. As we reported earlier, during a media briefing Geng first said that Presidents Trump and Xi agreed to reach mutually beneficial agreements, sparking a vicious rally in futures. Just moments later, however, futures erased gains when Geng later said he was referring to a phone call on Nov. 1. The result was the following: Following these fireworks, contracts on the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq pointed to a drop at the opening, while Treasuries and the dollar held steady before the Fed’s top two officials were set to speak in the next 48 hours. European equities gave up initial gains and posted small losses as basic resources and travel names underperformed, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index edging modestly lower (-0.1%), led by raw materials producers, while bonds rose across Europe and the euro currency edged lower. The pound weakened as traders mulled prospects for parliamentary approval of the Brexit deal, which Trump said could jeopardize Britain’s ability to strike a trade pact with the U.S. Earlier in the session, Asian markets were mostly positive as the region took impetus from the performance on Wall St, where all majors finished with firm gains on return from the Thanksgiving weekend and with retailers buoyed on the back of Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales. ASX 200 (+1.0%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.6%) were lifted from the open with Australia led higher by tech and financials, while a pullback in USD/JPY limited the upside for the Japanese benchmark. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-0.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.1%) were mixed with China somewhat dampened by Trump’s hardball tactics ahead of the meeting with Chinese President Xi at this week’s G20, in which he suggested an intention to proceed with raising tariffs on China imports from 10% to 25% and also warned to place tariffs on the remaining USD 267bln of Chinese imports if they fail to reach a favourable outcome for the US. Furthermore, a slowdown of Chinese Industrial Profit growth and concerns in the Hong Kong property sector also contributed the cautiousness in Chinese markets. In addition to today's 8:30am ET comments from Fed vice chair Clarida, trade remains firmly in investors’ minds before leaders of the two biggest economies meet in Buenos Aires at the end of the week. Trump's comments that it is likely the US will slap tariffs on the remaining Chinese imports and raise tariffs on existing tariffed products have weighed on optimism for U.S. stocks, which climbed on Monday amid hopes a strong start to the holiday season thanks to record online sales will keep growth on track. Meanwhile, Fed speakers will be closely watched for any indications of a change in Fed thinking over continued rate hikes. Today Fed vice chair's New York speech at 8:30am will be the main attraction, while Chair Powell’s speech on Wednesday will be parsed for any hints on prospects for a pause in rate increases next year after traders reduced expectations for the pace of monetary policy tightening. Elsewhere, emerging market currencies weakened and their shares traded little changed. Bitcoin steadied near $3,700 after plunging 14 percent Monday. In overnight political news, US Special Counsel Mueller's office said former Trump campaign manager Manafort lied to FBI and Special Counsel in violation of plea agreement. In commodities, Brent (+0.2%) and WTI (Unch) are nursing initial losses as focus starts turning to the G20 summit over the weekend where markets may get initial hints of what to expect at the Dec 6th OPEC meeting in Vienna. The Saudi Crown Prince, Russian President and US President are to meet, possibly on the side-lines to decide the future of the global oil market. Talk around the market notes that Prince Mohammed Bin Salman may not able to defy US President Trump’s aim for lower oil prices after the White House stood behind the prince in regard to the killing of journalist Khashoggi. Nonetheless, traders will be watching the summit closely, while in the nearer-term, today will see the release of the weekly API where forecasts see headline crude stockpiles printing a drawdown of 0.6mln barrels. Gold is trading relatively flat as the dollar holds steady following comments from Trump that overnight that he still intends to raise Chinese import tariffs to 25%; these comments come ahead of this week’s G20 summit. Additionally, US-China trade pessimism has caused copper prices to fall for the 3rd consecutive session due to demand concerns. Iron ore futures have dropped to their lowest level in over 4 months, dropping by 5% over concerns that steel prices are to remain pressured by slower demand. Expected data include Conference Board Consumer Confidence. Bank of Nova Scotia, Couche-Tard, and Salesforce are among companies reporting earnings. Market Snapshot
S&P500 futures down 0.2% at 2,663.0
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.07% to 358.59
MXAP up 0.4% to 151.86
MXAPJ up 0.3% to 486.89
Nikkei up 0.6% to 21,952.40
Topix up 0.7% to 1,644.16
Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 26,331.96
Shanghai Composite down 0.04% to 2,574.68
Sensex up 0.5% to 35,524.01
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1% to 5,728.28
Kospi up 0.8% to 2,099.42
German 10Y yield fell 1.2 bps to 0.349%
Euro down 0.04% to $1.1323
Italian 10Y yield fell 13.6 bps to 2.9%
Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.6 bps to 1.536%
Brent futures up 0.6% to $60.83/bbl
Gold spot little changed at $1,223.10
U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 97.15
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
President Donald Trump said he’ll likely push forward with plans to increase tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods, indicating he would also slap duties on all remaining imports from the Asian nation if negotiations with China’s leader Xi Jinping fail to produce a trade deal
U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May will put her Brexit deal to Parliament for a decisive vote on Dec. 11, but after her plan was savaged from all sides, the signs are she’s on course to lose. President Trump Says Brexit deal could hurt plans for trade pact with U.S.
The Brexit deal negotiated by Prime Minister Theresa May will lower economic output over the coming decade compared with staying in the European Union, researchers said. The deal would lower gross domestic product per capita by between 1.9 percent and 5.5 percent versus EU membership, according to a joint paper. Leaving without a deal could lower output per head as much as 8.7 percent.
Italy’s populist government failed to thrash out a new deficit target for the European Union in late night talks but cracks are starting to show in its battle with the bloc over spending
Donald Trump plans to keep Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross amid speculation of a broader shakeup in the president’s Cabinet, according to three people familiar with his thinking
European Union Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom sounds an upbeat note about EU talks with the U.S. on revamping global commercial rules while saying the verdict is out on whether President Donald Trump’s administration will stay engaged
The Turkish lira - - on track for its best November since 2002 -- is once again turning into a favorite for fast-money investors and hedge funds. Short-term carry positions have increased by an estimated $5.4 billion since the end of August, according to QNB Finansbank, an Istanbul-based lender
The Brevan Howard Asia Fund bucked a difficult October for macro funds, and is posting its best return in five years, according to a person with knowledge of the matter
Asian equity markets were mostly positive as the region took impetus from the performance on Wall St, where all majors finished with firm gains on return from the Thanksgiving weekend and with retailers buoyed on the back of Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales. ASX 200 (+1.0%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.6%) were lifted from the open with Australia led higher by tech and financials, while a pullback in USD/JPY limited the upside for the Japanese benchmark. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-0.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.1%) were mixed with China somewhat dampened by Trump’s hardball tactics ahead of the meeting with Chinese President Xi at this week’s G20, in which he suggested an intention to proceed with raising tariffs on China imports from 10% to 25% and also warned to place tariffs on the remaining USD 267bln of Chinese imports if they fail to reach a favourable outcome for the US. Furthermore, a slowdown of Chinese Industrial Profit growth and concerns in the Hong Kong property sector also contributed the cautiousness in Chinese markets. Finally, 10yr JGBs were uneventful as prices took a breather from its extended but gradual uptrend and with today’s 40yr auction largely ignored despite increases in the b/c and accepted prices. Top Asian News - Hong Kong’s Home Market Suffering Worst Declines Since 2016 - Day Two Rebound in Asia Stocks Closes an Eye on Trade Rhetoric - Genting Malaysia Says Fox World Lawsuit Won’t Impact Operations European cash indices gave up initial gains (Eurostoxx 50 -0.1%) following a relatively flat open after pre-market gains in index futures were short-lived. Equity futures staged a pre-cash open rally after it was reported that a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman was quoted as stating that US President Xi and US President Trump had agreed to mutually beneficial agreements. However gains in futures markets were pared after it was later reported that this was in reference to a November 1st phone call and thus was viewed as stale by the market, particularly considering the hardball interview by Trump in the WSJ yesterday ahead of this week’s G20 summit. On an index basis, the SMI lags its peers (-0.5%) with Credit Suisse (-1.7%) lower following a broker downgrade at Credit Suisse. In terms of sector specifics, performance is relatively mixed with slight underperformance in material names in-fitting with recent price action in the complex. To the upside, utility names modestly outperform, albeit the moves thus far across the board are relatively small in terms of magnitude. Individual movers this morning include Dialog Semiconductor (-1.4%) amid Apple-inspired losses (post-Trump threat of potential tariffs on iPhones and laptops), Apple share are down 1.7% pre-market. Elsewhere, Rexel (+1.9%) are firmer following a broker upgrade at Credit Suisse, Thomas Cook (-24.5%) shares are notably underperforming following a disappointing trading update, dragging Tui (-4.2%) lower in sympathy. Top European News
StanChart Is Said to Weigh a Simpler Structure to Control Costs
Bain Is Said to Explore Takeover Bid for Germany’s Osram Licht
UBS Takes Profit on Italy Two-Year Bonds as Budget Tensions Cool
Thomas Cook’s Dismal Year Gets Worse With Latest Profit Warning
Italy Compromise Has Convinced One Fund to Add European Banks
In FX, the DXY was overall bid vs G10 counterparts with the aid of the GBP weakness due to the latest Brexit developments. Moreover, Citi’s rebalancing model points to modest USD buying vs. peers going into month end, while Nordea also notes tomorrow’s HIA which is the cut-off date if companies wish to convert foreign currency into USD along with SOMA that happens to fall on Friday as well. The index is currently hovering above 97.000 within a narrow range around the big figure.
GBP– The standout underperformer vs. peers amid comments from UK Remain loyalist Fallon who said it may be possible to delay the date UK leaves the EU to renegotiate a better deal, inflicting a blow to UK PM May’s so-called “best deal”. As such Cable fell to a low print of 1.2734 ahead of the mid-November base at 1.2724, having already given up the 1.2800 handle following comments from US President Trump who noted that UK may not be able to trade with the US, in an interview last night. If the mid-November low (or Raab trough) is breached, the next levels to note are 1.2696 (October low) and 1.2662 (YTD low). However, looking further ahead Credit Suisse is more optimistic on the outlook for Sterling, with their Cable forecast at 1.4000 by end-2019
EUR– Holding up well vs. the pound above 0.8850 but not quite challenging the 100DMA 0.8884, though the single currency is lower vs. the buck, with the pair tripping some stops at 1.1310. Obviously, 1.1300 is nearest support and if breached more stops are reported at 1.1290.
NZD,AUD– Notable, albeit marginal G10 outperformers vs. the buck, with the Kiwi staging another recovery following the weak data (trade overnight), and now looking ahead to the RBNZ semi-annual FSR tonight. NZD/USD hovering just below 0.6800 and AUD/USD near the middle of a 0.7270-15 band.
In commodities, brent (+0.2%) and WTI (Unch) are nursing initial losses as focus starts turning to the G20 summit over the weekend where markets may get initial hints of what to expect at the Dec 6th OPEC meeting in Vienna. The Saudi Crown Prince, Russian President and US President are to meet, possibly on the side-lines to decide the future of the global oil market. Talk around the market notes that Prince Mohammed Bin Salman may not able to defy US President Trump’s aim for lower oil prices after the White House stood behind the prince in regard to the killing of journalist Khashoggi. Nonetheless, traders will be watching the summit closely, while in the nearer-term, today will see the release of the weekly API where forecasts see headline crude stockpiles printing a drawdown of 0.6mln barrels. Gold is trading relatively flat as the dollar holds steady following comments from Trump that overnight that he still intends to raise Chinese import tariffs to 25%; these comments come ahead of this week’s G20 summit. Additionally, US-China trade pessimism has caused copper prices to fall for the 3rd consecutive session due to demand concerns. Iron ore futures have dropped to their lowest level in over 4 months, dropping by 5% over concerns that steel prices are to remain pressured by slower demand. Looking at the day ahead, we’ll get various house price data points including the September FHFA house price index reading, Q3 house price purchase index reading and September S&P CoreLogic house price data. On top of that we’ll get the November consumer confidence survey which is expected to slip nearly 2pts to 135.8 in light of the recent wobbles in the equity market. That is, however, in the context of the 18-year high that the index reached last month. Away from the data, there will be plenty of focus on Fed Vice-Chair Clarida’s speech in New York today at 8.30am ET, especially around the topics of how he characterizes recent volatility in markets and the prospects for domestic and global growth. Fellow Fed officials Bostic, Evans and George will also speak while the ECB’s Nouy, Costa and Mersch also speak at various stages. It’s worth also noting that starting today and continuing until Thursday, the three top candidates to take over from Merkel as head of the CDU will hold panel debates. US Event Calendar
9am: S&PCoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA, est. 0.2%, prior 0.09%; CS 20- City YoY NSA, est. 5.2%, prior 5.49%
8:30am: Fed Vice Chairman Clarida Speaks in New York
9am: S&PCoreLogic CS 20- City NSA Index, prior 213.7; CS US HPI NSA Index, prior 205.8
2:30pm: Fed’s Bostic, Evan and George Speak on Panel
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap We took our three year old Maisie to the building site that is our new house over the weekend and this may have been a mistake as over the last two days she keeps on asking us why our new house is broken. She was particularly upset that a lot of windows and walls were missing and said she doesn’t want to live there as it would be too cold. Meanwhile Daddy’s bank account feels broken this morning as there was talk yesterday that one of our big suppliers might be about to call in the administrators. They have a healthy deposit of ours so it’s very annoying. It’s fair to say that costs are escalating from all angles and the EMR may need to still be running from an old people’s home in 50 years time to fund this. From broken houses to slightly less broken markets. Given that the two Mondays prior to yesterday had seen moves of -1.66% and -1.97% for the S&P 500, yesterday reversed the trend as better news percolated through on some of the negative stories that have dominated of late. The S&P 500 closed last night +1.56% with the DOW and NASDAQ also up +1.46% and +2.06% respectively. The NYFANG index advanced +3.72%, despite Apple’s underperformance (initially down -1.18% before rebounding to close +1.35%) as the US Supreme Court signalled its willingness to hear a class action lawsuit over its app store pricing. Financials really led the way with the S&P Banks index rallying +2.30% for its best day since July. They had their European counterparts to thank for that, with the STOXX Banks index (+2.91%) seeing its best single day performance since July 2017. The broader STOXX 600 closed +1.23% and DAX +1.45%. Italy was the main catalyst as sentiment improved on the potential for more positive negotiations with the European Commission. As we reported yesterday, the weekend saw less confrontational remarks from Salvini and Juncker. In addition, Salvini said yesterday that the government is “not getting stuck” over the decimals in the deficit target while fellow Deputy Premier Di Maio confirmed that “if, as part of the negotiation, we need to reduce the forecast deficit slightly, that’s not important to us.” Di Maio went on to say that “the issue is not the conflict with the EU on a deficit of 2.4%, what’s important is that not even a single person is kept out of the core measures.” Prior to this, we also had headlines on Bloomberg suggesting that an official for the League had said that the Government was looking at a new deficit target of 2.2% to 2.3%. Late in the evening, political leaders Conte, Salvini, and Di Maio released a joint statement after their meeting, confirming their less confrontational tone and again deemphasising the decimal place of the deficit number. As we go to print headline are coming through from Italian finance minister Castelli that the deficit target is “almost certain” to be 2.2%. The question on everyone’s lips is what is the compromise number that the European Commission could realistically accept? A deficit in the 2.2% area is still unlikely to satisfy the EC, however a willingness to negotiate might be seen as the Italian government being aware of the implications of its actions. The Commission could even accept a somewhat vague framework as a rationale to defer a formal decision on Italy until into 2019, potentially alleviating some of the near-term event risk for Italy-linked assets. Before all this news the FTSE MIB closed yesterday up +2.77% while Italian Banks (+4.83%) had their best day since June. Two- and ten-year BTPs rallied -11.2bps and -13.8bps respectively – albeit off their yield lows for the session. Speaking of Italy, the ECB’s Peter Praet said yesterday that there has been very limited spill-over from a tightening of financial conditions in Italy to the broader Euro Area, but that conditions in Italy are “unsustainable” and “so something will have to give.” Praet’s general tone outside of this was constructive. His comments suggested that QE will finish in December as widely expected, but also that the ECB will have to clarify was it meant by “reinvesting for an extended period of time.” Praet also confirmed that guidance is “a very strong expectation” but also noted that “downside risks have increased noticeably.” This was notable as the Council has previously said that risks are “balanced.” Praet’s speech raised the anticipation levels for Draghi, who spoke in the afternoon. While his speech was virtually a copy and paste from his last on November 16th, he was later quoted as saying that “world growth momentum has slowed considerably” which is much stronger language compared to that used in the past. The December 13 ECB meeting will be key, and our economists still expect the Governing Council to announce the end of QE. Incoming data will dictate the evolution of policy, but we still expect growth and inflation to progress sufficiently to allow for an interest rate hike in September 2019. Praet and Draghi are scheduled to speak again this week, on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. We’ll also get several consequential communications from Federal Reserve officials, with speeches scheduled today for Vice Chair Clarida, tomorrow for Chair Powell, and Friday for NY Fed President Williams. The bottom line so far is that he doesn’t think there is sufficient evidence to ratify the market’s dovish interpretation of recent Fed communications, though that could change depending on what the Fed leadership says about the neutral rate, financial conditions, and global growth. So an important couple of speeches today and tomorrow from Clarida and Powell. This morning in Asia markets are largely higher with the Nikkei (+0.88%), Shanghai Comp (+0.42%) and Kospi (+0.84%) all up while the Hang Seng (+0.01%) is trading flat after erasing earlier losses. Sentiment seems to have been impacted by US President Trump’s rhetoric, after an interview with the WSJ, that he will likely push forward with plans to increase tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods. He also suggested that the US would likely impose tariffs on the remainder of Chinese imports ($267bn) if the trade talks on the sidelines of the G20 fail. So the pressure builds ahead of the summit. Futures on S&P 500 (-0.18%) are pointing towards a softer start. Back to yesterday, Bund yields edged up +2.1bps yesterday with the Italy news more important than any ECB slowdown worries. That move for BTPs and Bunds means the spread between the two yesterday was -15.9bps tighter and now at the tightest level in nearly three weeks. Meanwhile Treasury yields also backed up +2.0bps and are now sitting at 3.06%. Oil had a part to play in that with Brent and Crude bouncing +3.13% and +2.54% respectively – despite the news that Saudi Arabia had again raised its oil output – perhaps with hopes that the oversupply condition will be addressed at the G20 this week or the OPEC meeting next week. Tensions between Russia and the Ukraine over the weekend seemed to have less of an impact. Not hurting the decent day for equities yesterday was news of a merger in the Greek Banking sector, however a sub-index of Greek banks did give up an early morning surge of as much as +11.57% to finish flat. A pretty substantial move and retracement! In the US, the auto sector advanced +3.98% for its sixth best day of the year, after General Motors announced a broad new restructuring plan. It plans to cut over 14,000 jobs and close five North American manufacturing plants next year, barring an agreement with its unions. GM’s share price rose +4.79% to a four-month high. Elsewhere on Brexit, Donald Trump has suggested PM May's Brexit agreement could threaten a US-UK trade deal. He told reporters the withdrawal agreement "sounds like a great deal for the EU" and meant the UK might not be able to trade with the US. The PM’s office insisted the deal is "very clear" the UK would be able to sign trade deals with countries around the world. To the day ahead now, where this morning in Europe we’ll get November confidence indicators in France and Italy followed by the CBI’s retailing reported sales data in the UK for November. In the US this afternoon we’ll get various house price data points including the September FHFA house price index reading, Q3 house price purchase index reading and September S&P CoreLogic house price data. On top of that we’ll get the November consumer confidence survey which is expected to slip nearly 2pts to 135.8 in light of the recent wobbles in the equity market. That is, however, in the context of the 18-year high that the index reached last month. Away from the data, there will be plenty of focus on Fed Vice-Chair Clarida’s speech in New York today at 1.30pm GMT, especially around the topics of how he characterizes recent volatility in markets and the prospects for domestic and global growth. Fellow Fed officials Bostic, Evans and George will also speak this evening at 7.30pm GMT while the ECB’s Nouy, Costa and Mersch also speak at various stages. It’s worth also noting that starting today and continuing until Thursday, the three top candidates to take over from Merkel as head of the CDU will hold panel debates.
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