"Bitcoin will reach 40,000 before Dow Jones" - Tom Lee ...

XOM dropped from the DOw

For Trading August 25th
XOM, PFE, & RTX DROPPED FROM DJIA
More New Highs for NAZ & S&P-500
TSLA TOPS $2,100!!
Today’s market was higher from the start and leveled off around +240 -250 until the last 45 minutes when it powered higher into the close finishing +378.13 (1.35%), NASDAQ +67.92 (.60%), S&P 500 34.12 (1%), The Russell +15.90 (1.03%), and the big winner the DJ Transports +208.17 (1.9%). Internals were positive at 2.5:1 NYSE and 1.4:1 on the NAZ with NYSE volume 5:1 UP ! The DJIA was 5:1 higher and this will be the last time that AAPL will affect the average at the rates of the past since it is price-weighted and AAPL will no be a $100 stock, not $500. The only big loser today was UNH falling $36 DP’s and the gainers BA +74, AAPL +41, and GS +33 DP’s.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also did this video over the weekend on a day-trade, (actually 2) that I made in AAPL on Friday. I think it’s highly informative as a guide to under what conditions these kind of trades in expiring options make sense. The link is https://youtu.be/qIV0G-hP3aM Enjoy!!
Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/eMCD4wjOVh4
SECTORS: While it isn’t necessarily my focus, it’s difficult to not key in on TESLA breaking $2,100 today, trading $2129 and then selling off to $1927 before turning back up to close $2014 -35.78 (1.75%). A week ago, someone in the Discord room asked what I thought, and I gave them an opinion that once we closed over $1,643 that we were headed directly to $2,000-2,100 on a straight shot. I really had a high degree of certainty but thought it would take more than 7 trading days to get to that range! The “possible” vaccine news this morning lit a fire under the airlines; AAL +1.28 (10.5%), DAL +2.53 (9.28%), LUV +2.22 (6.4%), and UAL +3.28 (9.9%). Next were the cruise lines with CCL +1.49 (10%), RCL +2.90 (4.7%), and NCHL +1.18 (7.6%). Personally, I don’t see these names holding up with DAL announcing that unless they get further financial assistance that they will have to fire an additional 1941 pilots. These guys just want us to foot the bill for their disgraceful actions when they could have been preparing for a downturn rather than just lined their own pockets and bought back stock. PaloAlto Networks beat both top and bottom lines but gave soft guidance on next quarters revenues and after closing $267.07 -2.26 it fell further to $254.68 -12.77 (4.7%). The big news on the DJIA is that Dow Jones is making 3 major changes. I could be wrong, but I don’t think I’ve ever seen more than one at a time, but here are the names: Salesforce (CRM) replaces XOM, Amgen (AMGN) replaces Pfizer (PFE), and Honeywell (HON) replaces Raytheon (RTX) which also includes UTX.
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN +.67, BGS +.44, FLO +.23, CPB +.15, CAG +.44, MDLZ +.51, KHC +.67, CALM -.63, JJSF +3.45, SAFM +.01, HRL -.05, SJM +1.15, PPC +.38, KR +.15, and PBJ $34.31 +.15 (.44%).
BIOPHARMA was LOWER with BIIB -.51, ABBV -.26, REGN -10.72, ISRG +2.05, GILD -.48, MYL +.34, TEVA -.14, VRTX -3.78, BHC +.61, INCY -.07, ICPT -.71, LABU -3.91, AND IBB $131.60 -1.00 (.75%).
CANNABIS: was HIGHER with TLRY +.10, CGC +.33, CRON +.18, GWPH -3.04, NBEV -.10, CURLF +.47, KERN unch., and MJ $12.40 unch.
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +5.43, GD +3.29, TXT +1.69, NOC +6.14, BWXT +1.51, TDY +6.52, RTX -.22, and ITA $169.39 +5.27 (3.21%).
RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.36, JWN +1.15, KSS +1.54, DDS +2.13, WMT -.31, TGT -.56, TJX +1.32, RL +3.37, UAA +.51, LULU +7.56, TPR +.81, CPRI +1.36, and XRT $52.88 +.92 (1.77%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +10.13, AMZN +22.78, AAPL +8.62, FB +4.69, NFLX -3.51, NVDA +1.91, TSLA -49.96, BABA +11.20, BIDU +.74, CMG -9.84, BA +11.00, CAT +3.45, DIS +3.26, and XLK $118.96 +1.02 (.86%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +5.22, JPM +2.93, BAC +.76, MS +1.31, C +1.84, PNC +3.51, AIG +1.25, TRV +3.07, AXP +3.83, V +2.47, and XLF $24.89 +.58 (2.39%).
OIL, $42.62 +.28. Oil was higher in today’s trading before we rose further in the afternoon closing up at the top end of the day’s range. The stocks were HIGHER across the board with XLE $37.02 +.99 (2.75%).
GOLD $1,939.20 -7.80, rose early in the session trading up thru the double tops at $1,963.10 to $1,970 before selling off and finishing near the lows. I am still a bull on the metal, and we have a September bull call spread on using NEM 65/70 calls with a cost of $1.45, which closed today @ $1.66.
BITCOIN: closed $11,770 +75. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $13.72 + .14 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to OptionsOnly [link] [comments]

Review: The most thrilling 24 hours in Bitcoin history

From 12:00 on March 12th to 12:00 on the 13th, Bitcoin, the most influential currency in the cryptocurrency industry, suffered two major declines, and its price fell from a maximum of 7,672 USD to a minimum of 3,800 USD (data from Huobi, the next Same), the decline was 50.4%, which means that the price of Bitcoin has achieved a fairly accurate "half price" in these 24 hours.
Previously, Bitcoin's "halving market" was mostly considered to be an increase in market prices caused by Bitcoin's halving production, although many people have questioned the "halving market" as " The price is halved ", but when bitcoin walks out of the current bad market, it still surprises most investors.
First plunge
The bad 24 hours started at 12 o'clock on March 12. Due to the rapid spread of the new crown epidemic in Europe and the United States, the global financial markets have been raining for several days. After several adjustments, the price of Bitcoin has hovered up and down within the range of $ 7600-8200 in the previous three days. However, after 12 o'clock on the 12th, Bitcoin The price fell below $ 7,600 for the first time, breaking the psychological expectations of many investors, entering a rapid decline channel, and dropping to about $ 7,200 at around 18 o'clock.
At this time, the decline of Bitcoin is still around 7%, which is a common occurrence in the history of Bitcoin. However, after 18 o'clock that day, the market turned sharply, and the price of bitcoin plunged again in a short period of time. It fell to US $ 5,555 within tens of minutes, a drop of 28%, and the amount of contractual positions on each platform exceeded US $ 2 billion.
During the decline, most major exchanges such as Huobi, Binance, and OKEx experienced systemic freezes of varying degrees. Many users complained for a long time that the exchange app could not properly display the homepage, market page, and transaction page, and added positions, stops, and withdrawals. Obstacles such as cash withdrawal and cash withdrawal operations have also shown that this situation also highlights that mainstream exchanges still fail to address the ability of their trading systems to respond to extreme conditions.
For this decline, the collective sell-off of large Bitcoin holders is considered to be the main reason. For example, Grayscale Investment, the world's largest crypto asset fund management company, was sold and sold 40,000-50,000 Bitcoins. News from the exchange said that Bitcoin sold 400,000.
For a long time, bitcoin has been called "digital gold" by the blockchain industry, and has good risk aversion properties. During the tense situation between the United States and Iran in January this year and the global stock market fell, Bitcoin rose from $ 7,200 all the way to more than $ 10,000. Bitcoin's safe-haven attributes have been widely recognized in history, but this time caused by the new crown epidemic Under the risk of the global economic downturn, the decline in the price of bitcoin has become the asset with the largest depreciation among various mainstream financial assets, and its high-risk nature will most likely collapse.
Some analysts believe that bitcoin should be further classified as an alternative asset. At a time when liquidity shortage is extremely serious, as a high-risk alternative investment asset with the highest volatility in the world, funds will naturally be drawn from the market by investors. Looking for safer, more liquid assets, prices plummet.
"Everyone in the future will realize that Bitcoin is not digital gold, but" an amplifier of risk. " Its value cannot be anchored. Unlike other asset prices, which are affected by costs and prices, Bitcoin has no normal market value range. As of now, it does not have any convincing valuation basis, more like a swaying boat. Without the anchor, its value fluctuates greatly, and the impact of halving the market and supply and demand on it is far less important than psychological factors. "Said Cai Kailong, senior researcher at the Institute of Financial Technology of Renmin University of China.
However, some people in the industry hold different opinions. "BTC is still the most powerful currency in the history of mankind. It provides liquidity 24 hours a day. This is something that other markets simply can't imagine, but because liquidity is too good, this time it just happened to happen in other markets. When funds are scarce, the first choice for selling supplementary funds has also led to the decline of gold. Of course, the amount of BTC that is currently much lower than gold is certainly unstoppable in a short period of time. "A Weibo blogger" "fhrp".
In addition to the sell-off of large institutions, some mortgage lending platforms have also passively become an important boost for this downturn. In the past six months, the Defi concept has been particularly hot in the blockchain industry, and many cryptocurrency-based cryptocurrency lending platforms were born.
As a result, a large number of large Bitcoin users will pledge the Bitcoin in their accounts to third-party lending platforms and use the USDT to borrow cash to purchase cash, which is equivalent to increasing leverage. However, these platforms are not mature in terms of mortgage rate setting and liquidation mechanisms. Users who increase the mortgage rate of assets have a slower transfer speed on the chain. As a result, during this period of rapid decline in the market, a large number of mortgage orders have lower mortgage assets than loans. As a result, the amount of bitcoin out-of-market positions this time was far more than in the previous period of large market volatility, which further exacerbated the selling pressure of the bitcoin spot market.
From 19:00 on the 12th to the early morning of the 13th, the price of Bitcoin hovered in the range of 5800-6200 US dollars, and the market began to prepare for the next stage of the trend.
Second plunge
On the evening of the 12th, the stock markets of mainstream countries in Europe and the United States successively opened and collectively fell, and the stock markets of at least 11 countries, such as the United States, Canada, and the Philippines, melted down. At the close of the morning on the 13th, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S & P 500 Index had the largest single-day percentage decline since the 1987 stock disaster. The Dow closed down about 2352 points, the largest drop in history.
The bad performance of the stock market quickly passed to the currency market. Beginning at 7 o'clock on the 13th, the price of bitcoin plunged from the position of $ 5,800 once again, dropping all the way, and successively fell below $ 5,000 and $ 4,000.
For the rapid decline of the market, many people in the industry believe that the main factor is not only the panic selling of the market, but also the mutual stepping on of contract investors. Weibo blogger "AlbertTheKing" pointed out that most of the long positions in Bitcoin leverage are in the BitMEX perpetual contract market. The long positions caused by the decline in bitcoin prices caused a series of short positions, which in turn caused arbitrage spreads and spot arbitrage. The party rushed in to open multiple orders and sell spot arbitrage at the same time, thinking it was okay. As a result, I did not expect Bitcoin to fall more and more fiercely, and his own arbitrage and long positions also burst. So at first, the leveraged bulls stepped down on each other, and later became the arbitrage party. .
"Fhrp" also pointed out that because BitMEX only has BTC margin, ETH's permanent liquidation also needs to be undertaken by btc. The profit portion of the hedge order cannot be included in the margin, and BTC is not sufficient because of the card being in serious shortage. The exploding warehouse order was opaque, so that no one dared to pick up the corpse later, fearing that it would become a corpse. Of course, the key is the lack of a fusing system, so that the market can slowly wait for liquidity to keep up.
Under the interweaving of many risks, the price of bitcoin is about 10:15. It has fallen below 3,800 US dollars in many exchanges such as Huobi and OKEx, which is 38% lower than the price of 0 on the day and 50.4% lower than 24 hours ago. This is the highest record in the 24-hour drop since the birth of Bitcoin.
Such a precise decline cannot be doubted as the bad taste of the bookmaker behind the exchange, if the bookmaker does exist. Of course, it is not excluded that this situation is due to the tacit understanding among the main market participants, or a purely natural phenomenon.
But judging from objective facts, there is indeed some evidence that the situation is unnatural. After bitcoin hit a low of $ 3,800, its price quickly rose in the next 20 minutes, rising by 59% to $ 5,250, but then fell rapidly. At the turning point of $ 3,800, which is 10:16, the BitMEX trading system, the largest bitcoin exchange in the cryptocurrency industry, suddenly stopped until 10:40.
It can be seen that the time point when the Bitcoin price stopped falling rapidly and stopped rising rapidly was close to the time point when BitMEX went down and returned to normal. This shows that BitMEX has a huge influence on the secondary market, and it also makes a lot of One suspects BitMEX is manipulating the market.
Sam Bankman-Fried, chief executive of Derivatives Exchange FTX, tweeted that he suspects BitMEX may have intentionally closed transactions to prevent further crashes and to avoid using exchange insurance funds. Mining company BitPico also tweeted yesterday, "According to our analysis, BitMEX Research has closed its long position of $ 993 million with its own robots and capital. Today the manipulation of the bitcoin market is caused by an entity and the investigation is ongoing. "
In response to this incident, BitMEX responded that there was a hardware problem with the cloud service provider, and in a subsequent announcement, it was pointed out that the DDoS attack was the real cause of the short-term downtime.
Why the downtime of the BitMEX trading system is difficult to verify, but from its objective impact, its short-term downtime plays a vital role in curbing the further decline in the price of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, which has eased investment to a certain extent. The panic sentiment created by this has created space for the rebound and correction of cryptocurrency prices such as Bitcoin.
Sam Bankman-Fried even speculated that if BitMEX did not go offline because of a "hardware problem" this morning (February 13), the price of Bitcoin could fall to zero.
If compared with the traditional financial market, the effect of this BitMEX outage event is quite similar to the "fuse" mechanism of the stock market. Trading is suspended for dozens of minutes at the moment when investor sentiment is most panic, so this outage event Also aroused the emotions of many people in the industry.
"BitMEX has helped the currency circle" melt out, "otherwise the chainless stepping will not know where to fall. After the fuse, everyone calmed down and the market returned to normal. Weibo blogger "Blockchain William" posted a blog saying, "The market is not afraid of falling, and it is not afraid of stepping on it. That is why. This is why the global stock market has melted down because investors panic. It is a bottomless pit. Once out of control, there is no bottom Now. "
Of course, the factors that cause the market situation to reverse are not limited to this. According to the feedback from multiple users on social platforms, BitMEX and Binance's major exchanges forced the short positions of multiple accounts to close positions at 10 o'clock on March 13th, that is, the automatic lightening mechanism was in effect.
According to the BitMEX platform mechanism, when investor contracts are forced to close out, their remaining positions will be taken over by BitMEX's strong closing system. However, if a strong liquidation position cannot be closed in the market, and when the marked price reaches the bankruptcy price, the automatic lightening system will lighten the investor holding the position in the opposite direction, and the order of lightening is determined according to the leverage and profit ratio .
Specifically, due to the sharp fluctuations in the price of bitcoin, a large number of long single-series bursts and the scarcity of market liquidity. In order to control the risk, the platform will automatically place some short orders with high profit ratios and high leverage on the market, increasing market flow. It also avoids the risk to the platform caused by the inability of the short-selling order to be executed in a timely manner.
According to BitMEX's announcement, about 200 positions were automatically closed by the system. And Twitter blogger Edward Morra said, "On BitMEX alone, short positions worth about $ 500 million have been liquidated." If this data is true, it means that BitMEX's strong liquidation operation has brought more than 5 to the contract market. The market price of 100 million US dollars has a significant positive effect on the market that is being sold out.
However, as a compensation, BitMEX also stated that it would contact each damaged user and compensate them according to the maximum potential profit that the investor obtained during the automatic liquidation.
In any case, through the operation of exchanges such as BitMEX, the price of bitcoin has entered a recovery channel, and it is still hovering at the $ 5,000 mark, while driving the entire cryptocurrency market to pick up.
After this thrilling 24 hours of bitcoin, the ideal "halving market" has disappeared. The real and brutal "halving market" is coming. Perhaps many investors and investment institutions have expressed their confidence in the crypto assets represented by bitcoin. The understanding will change in this regard, and the confidence of the entire industry needs to be rebuilt. This depends on the application value of bitcoin to be deepened.
submitted by FmzQuant to u/FmzQuant [link] [comments]

Bitcoin's fundamentals haven't changed since the price fell

Bitcoin's fundamentals haven't changed since the price fell
The financial crisis predicted by economists has finally begun. As we have seen, since March 9, 2020, the virus that has spread throughout the world has become a catalyst for a sharp decline in financial markets.

https://preview.redd.it/8dr6q251hfn41.png?width=450&format=png&auto=webp&s=7683d8c0bac183b81d5705f23c4b547ab5118e70
The growing economic crisis has triggered collective panic, and for 99% of people, it is imperative to restore as much liquidity as possible. Logically, we are facing a liquidity crisis that is having a significant impact on the liquidity of all financial markets around the world. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Index has fallen by 20% in the past 5 days. Over the past month, the Dow Jones Index has fallen by about 30%, and the S & P 500 has undergone the same adjustment.

In the rest of the world, the situation is exactly the same. For centuries, gold has been used as a safe-haven asset in times of crisis, but in recent days it has fallen by more than 10%.

When everyone is in panic, there is no safe haven at all. In this case, it is impossible for Bitcoin to not fall. Bitcoin is a highly liquid market, and it can even be said that it is the only truly free market in the world.

Even though Bitcoin has evaporated $ 60 billion in market value in just a few hours, it continues to operate, allowing investors to find equilibrium prices on their own.

Whether an asset has hedging properties requires long-term measurement. Similarly, the correlation between Bitcoin and other assets cannot be concluded in these days. At this point, if we step back, we can see the big picture instead.

Although the price of Bitcoin has changed, has its fundamentals changed? No, the fundamentals of Bitcoin March 18 are the same as those of March 1. Bitcoin still maintains good fundamentals, which gives us reason to be optimistic about the future of Bitcoin.

01

Bitcoin is as scarce as ever

The price of Bitcoin dropped from $ 9,000 to more than $ 3,000 within a few days. Its price has now stabilized at around $ 5,300. The current global situation is in turmoil, and panic in the market may cause the price of the currency to fall below $ 5,000 again.

However, no matter what the price of Bitcoin is, it remains as scarce as ever.

Bitcoin is still the rarest decentralized invention ever made by human beings, and no matter what happens, the maximum supply of Bitcoin will not change. No leader in this world can change the fact that the total amount of Bitcoin is 21 million.

So after the crisis, gold and bitcoin will eventually resume their roles, and when prices will rise again, those who have seized the opportunity will get huge returns.

02

Unique monetary policy

Bitcoin was created by Satoshi Nakamoto in response to the 2008 financial crisis. Realizing that the currency and financial system have reached their limits, Satoshi Nakamoto decided to officially launch the Bitcoin experiment on January 3, 2009, and wrote in the genesis block: The Treasury Secretary is on the brink of saving the bank for the second time. "

Therefore, we can also think that Bitcoin was created for what we will experience in the coming weeks or months. When Satoshi Nakamoto created Bitcoin, he hoped to obtain a scarcity similar to gold, so the longer it took, the more difficult it was to create a new Bitcoin. For every 210,000 additional transaction blocks, the number of newly mined Bitcoins will be halved.

Initially, for every additional transaction block in the Bitcoin blockchain, 50 new bitcoins will be generated, and by May 2020, the bit will be halved for the third time, after which each additional block will only add 6.25 BTC. Therefore, the number of new bitcoins created daily in the future will be reduced from 1800 to 900, which will have a certain impact on the total supply of bitcoin.

This single monetary policy is a huge advantage of Bitcoin over the current monetary and financial system. After the third Bitcoin halving, the annual inflation rate of Bitcoin supply will definitely fall below 2% to 1.8%. In the future, bitcoin's annual supply inflation will tend to zero, and will reach zero in 2140, at which time all bitcoin will be mined.

Bitcoin's monetary policy can protect what you have, and it was still valid when the Fed just decided to inject more than $ 700 billion in US banks. It can be said that from the perspective of how Bitcoin operates, the Fed still has a lot to learn.

03

Bitcoin network is still decentralized

Anyone can join the Bitcoin blockchain and become a node in the network. In the Bitcoin world, all users are equally important. All this makes Bitcoin able to withstand the obstacles of powerful people in the current system.

No one can stop you from using Bitcoin at will. At any time, if you want, you can sell all your Bitcoins. This is why the price of bitcoin has fallen sharply in the past few days. Bitcoin operates permanently by letting users determine its equilibrium price.

Once the stock price falls too fast, Wall Street will cease to trade. At this point, Bitcoin once again shows its superiority over Wall Street. The basic fact that Bitcoin is the only truly free market in the world has been proven again a few days ago.

04

Bitcoin remains a secure decentralized network

In its 11 years, the Bitcoin network has never been hacked. Bitcoin's security has never been breached and it's incredible to think about it, because hackers from all over the world have been trying to attack Bitcoin over and over again.

Still, Bitcoin has stood on its feet. The theft in the Bitcoin world exists only at the weakest link: trading platforms and users. Since its birth, Bitcoin has been operating normally 99.98% of the time. There is nothing enviable about the normal operation of Internet giants such as Google, Amazon, or Facebook.

However, Bitcoin's secure operation is based only on the user's computing power. These people are so convinced about the future of Bitcoin that they have been providing more computing power to the network.

At the beginning of 2020, the hashrate of the Bitcoin network reached a peak of 130TH / s. The recent drop in the price of Bitcoin and the accompanying collective panic have led to a decline in computing power, but currently still maintain the level of 100 TH / s.

In this crisis, Bitcoin remains the most secure decentralized network in the world. Secondly, you should notice that the basic situation of Bitcoin has improved a lot since the end of 2017. Due to the sharp increase in transaction volume at the end of 2017, the overall network speed has slowed down, but this time, Bitcoin standing in the storm has been able to absorb an entire transaction volume peak without any stalls.

05

Bitcoin still belongs to everyone

The high fluctuations in the price of bitcoin in the past week remind us that bitcoin still belongs to everyone and everyone can sell bitcoin freely. When Bitcoin depreciated by 50% within hours, the transaction continued.

At the same time, once the market falls more than 7%, Wall Street will suspend trading for 15 minutes. This fusing mechanism has been applied several times since the liquidity crisis broke out in the market.

Wall Street is not a free market. It belongs to a few powerful people who protect their interests at all costs. Once the market does not turn around and continues to fall, Wall Street will call on the Federal Reserve to maintain the current system.

The Federal Reserve ’s monetary stimulus measures have become less and less effective. It cut interest rates by 100 basis points on March 15, 2020. At the same time, it introduced a quantitative easing plan to reduce the bank deposit reserve ratio to zero. This series of measures was even affected Opposition to Wall Street. Once again, Bitcoin stands out in the current system with its strong fundamentals.
submitted by FinnHe to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Christmas Update

05-APR-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Bull Market…?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg50467456#msg50467456
20-APR-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Easter Update
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg50681435#msg50681435
12-MAY-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Sell In May And Go Away?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg51017295#msg51017295
17-JUN-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Solstice Update
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg51505513#msg51505513
28-JUL-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Inflection Point
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg51975328#msg51975328
26-OCT-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Trick or Treat…?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg52880531#msg52880531
24-NOV-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Thanksgiving Update
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg53171045#msg53171045
24-DEC-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Christmas Update
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg53430396#msg53430396
Summary: Bitcoin remains in a bull market with an outlook to exceed the 2017 high. However, a price move below $5000 suggests Bitcoin is in a bear market, with price headed to break below the 2018 lows. The majority of Altcoins favour an extended bear market unless an intervention can be coordinated. The outlook for the stockmarket, in particular the USA, is extremely bullish.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, two scenarios are under consideration at this inflection point: a continuing Bull Scenario or a Bear Scenario.
In either scenario, the Elliott Wave model proposes a five wave structure, consisting of: three advancing bull market waves, interwoven with two declining bear market waves. Overlaying this model onto Bitcoin suggests:
Wave-1: the first bull market wave 2010-2013 (1219 days), followed by; Wave-2: the first bear market wave 2013-2015 (426 days), followed by; Wave-3: the second bull market wave 2015-2018 (1065 days), followed by; Wave-4: the second bear market wave 2018-2019 (363 days), followed by; Wave-5: the third and final bull market wave 2019-? 
—BLX: https://i.imgur.com/FOZu1mH.png
The five aforementioned have been considered as PRIMARY degree waves —such waves elapse the course of a few months to a couple of years. Each PRIMARY degree wave is constituted of five INTERMEDIATE degree waves; and in turn, so forth into smaller degree fractals.
The Bull Scenario suggests Wave-5 is still underway, with subdividing and extending waves headed for new all-time highs.
The Bear Scenario suggests Wave-5 completed at the 26-JUN-2019 high as a truncated fifth wave failure, and a bear market is underway. The majority of Altcoins favour an ongoing bear market.
Bull Scenario
The bullish scenario suggests a continuing bull market is underway. PRIMARY[5] wave started from the 06-FEB-2019 low, and has completed its first parabolic uptrend labelled as INTERMEDIATE(1) wave at the 26-JUN-2019 high.
—BTC: https://i.imgur.com/tw6ZguX.png
Since the 26-JUN-2019 high, INTERMEDIATE(2) wave pullback has been underway and has thus far declined 55% into the low of 18-DEC-2019.
The structure of INTERMEDIATE(2) wave decline has thus far unfolded as three A-B-C waves of MINOR degree as follows:
—Wave-A decline started at the high of 26-JUN-2019 and completed as a complex structure at the low of 23-OCT-2019.
—Wave-B bounce started at the low of 23-OCT-2019 when the market suddenly spiked and surged over 40% within a day —attributed to news of Chinese leader Xi Jinping reportedly stating China should “seize the opportunity” offered by blockchain. The surge was the third largest 24-hour price gain in Bitcoin's history and a simple structure completed at the high of 26-OCT-2019.
—Wave-C decline has been underway since the high of 26-OCT-2019. At the low of 18-DEC-2019, Wave-C reached a Fibonacci 0.618% of Wave-A in length on notable BITFINEX and COINBASE exchanges; in addition, created positive divergence of price against momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index on the daily timeframe.
Given the potential of a completed correction as described in the aforementioned A-B-C decline, the market has arrived at a juncture to consider the end of INTERMEDIATE(2) wave decline at the 18-DEC-2019 low.
To provide any credibility to this consideration, price is required to rise from the 18-DEC-2019 low and exceed the high of 29-NOV-2019. In addition, price Is required to unfold in five impulsive i-ii-iii-iv-v rising waves. Thus far as of Christmas Eve, price has risen in one wave from the 18-DEC-2019 low and is below the 29-NOV-2019 high.
Alternatively, the INTERMEDIATE(2) wave decline is still to further subdivide and extend lower. A decline below the 18-DEC-2019 low confirms an ongoing INTERMEDIATE(2) wave decline. The following Fibonacci-based levels may be sought as support zones to conclude the pullback; using COINBASE pricing:
@5431: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire INTERMEDIATE(1) wave from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019. @5374: MINOR C = MINOR A * 0.786 @4358: 88.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire INTERMEDIATE(1) wave from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019. [WARNING: Bull Market Terminated?] 
—BTC: https://i.imgur.com/6ORFqnV.png
Using the Greyscale Bitcoin Fund (GBTC) as a proxy to Bitcoin, the rise from the 18-DEC-2019 low thus far, as of Christmas Eve, appears corrective. Therefore, price action currently favours an ongoing decline:
—GBTC: https://i.imgur.com/W5TNedb.png
Once INTERMEDIATE(2) wave pullback has completed, a rising INTERMEDIATE(3) is expected to commence and resume the bull market. Such a wave is expected to unfold parabolically in nature, and at a minimum, meet or exceed the PRIMARY[3] high set on 17-DEC-2017. In both price and time, this wave is expected to be the longest of the PRIMARY[5] bull market.
Where the PRIMARY[5] bull market ends is open to interpretation and speculation.
From an Elliott Wave perspective: A common wave relationship guides the price of the fifth wave to be equal to; or extend a Fibonacci 1.618 or 2.618 times; the length from the low of the first wave through to the high of third wave; projected from the low of the fourth wave. This provides a conservative target of the current bull market to conclude between $22,912 or $35,127 or $54,892, calculated using the BraveNewCoin (BLX) index:
@22912: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 1 @35127: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 1.618 @54892: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 2.618 
—BLX: https://i.imgur.com/PnMZf9x.png
As and when the waves develop and progress, and in the event of subdividing and extending waves, revised price targets shall be calculated with renewed projections.
Bear Scenario
The bear market scenario suggests the 2019 bull market was a short-lived affair, and PRIMARY[5] terminated as a failed-fifth truncated wave.
PRIMARY[5] started from the 15-DEC-2018 low and completed at the 26-JUN-2019 high. A Fibonacci 88.6% retracement of this uptrend is at 4350 COINBASE —a decline to this point ought to signal the market has favoured to deflate.
—BTC: https://i.imgur.com/sOefCp8.png
In this scenario, five completed PRIMARY degree waves have completed a CYCLE I wave structure. And now, a CYCLE II wave bear market pullback is underway and headed to break below the 2018 low.
—BLX: https://i.imgur.com/fJGOI7e.png
The wider cryptocurrency market in terms of the Altcoins currently appear to support the outlook of a bear market. So far in 2019, the price structure of majority Altcoins has seemingly unfolded in corrective A-B-C advancing waves, instead of impulsive 1-2-3-4-5 waves. This suggests the majority of Altcoins may be set to break their respective 2018 lows unless an intervention can be coordinated…
—ETH: https://i.imgur.com/HAqzXoE.png
—LTC: https://i.imgur.com/OoZOuMa.png
—XRP: https://i.imgur.com/hNGFkpw.png
Stockmarket
The outlook for the major global equity stockmarkets, in particular the USA, is extremely bullish.
From the 2009 low of the great financial crises, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index has risen in four PRIMARY degree waves, with a fifth and final rising wave underway which began from the low of 2018.
In 2020, the stockmarket will be entering its 11th bull market year since the low of 2009. Fibonacci numbers next in sequence are 13, 21, 34. Therefore, the stockmarket isn’t likely to run into major headwinds until 2022; or until 2030 if the bull market extends to 21 years:
—DJIA (1915-2019) https://i.imgur.com/h65uK1h.png
—DJIA (2009-2019): https://i.imgur.com/Jltyekg.png
Since the Brexit vote in 2016, the UK FTSE100 has been directionless. With clarity now emerging on Brexit since the 12-DEC-2019 UK election, the FTSE100 is poised to resume a strong bull market:
—FTSE100 (1988-2019): https://i.imgur.com/4omkDHD.png
Analysis is purely speculative, and projections are indicative of price & structure, not time. Merry Christmas!
submitted by 12345abcde00001 to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptocurrencies for One Year (2018) - FINAL REPORT FOR 2018 - Down 85% - Stellar Victorious

EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptocurrencies for One Year (2018) - FINAL REPORT FOR 2018 - Down 85% - Stellar Victorious
The end is here.
tl;dr - I am down -85% on my Top Ten crypto portfolio since the beginning of the year. My $1,000 investment on the 1st of January 2018 is now worth $151. Best performer of 2018 is Stellar, down -66%, worst performers down -94% and 4 out of 10 cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten have lost over 90% of their value.
Click here for full blog post complete with charts, graphs, and charts of graphs.

The Experiment:

Instead of hypothetically tracking cryptos throughout the year, I made an actual $1000 investment, $100 in each of the Top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap as of the 1st of January 2018. It began as a lazy man's Index Fund (no weighting or rebalancing), but I've moved away from that terminology as things have changed quite a bit since January 1st, 2018 (plus the term "Index Fund" seems to bring out the shills trying to sell their own Crypto Index Fund product).
My experiment is less technical, more fun (for me at least), and hopefully still a proxy for the entire market- or at the very least an interesting snapshot of the 2018 crypto space. I'm trying to keep it simple and accessible for beginners and those looking to get into crypto but maybe not quite ready to jump in yet.

The Rules:

Buy $100 of each the Top 10 cryptocurrencies on January 1st, 2018. Run the experiment 365 days. Hold only. No selling. No trading. Report monthly.

MONTH/EPISODE TWELVE AND FINAL TALLY - Down 85% in 2018

https://preview.redd.it/d67ec8cg0t821.png?width=1187&format=png&auto=webp&s=da298dda0431a69ab560b2e8d6e3b15e0e7f9763
December was a quiet month for the experiment - not many fireworks to end the year. Although my portfolio did reach yet another record loss at -85%, it only ticked down one percentage point from the previous month. For comparison, the Dow Jones lost over -6% in December.
Finally tally for the year: I am now down -85% on my Top Ten crypto portfolio since the beginning of the year. My $1,000 investment on the 1st of January 2018 is now worth $151.
December Winners - It was a nice change to see a bit of green on my spreadsheet for the last month of the year. Winners: Ethereum and IOTAup an impressive 39% and 30% respectively. Litecoin ticked up 5% as well.
December Losers - Stellar had an uncharacteristically rough month, losing about 1/3 of its value in December. More predictably NEM, which has been a regular cellar-dweller for many of my monthly reports, fared poorly, down -15% in December.

FINAL RESULTS for 2018 – Stellar wins the experiment followed by Bitcoin. Cardano and Bitcoin Cash in virtual tie for worst performance of the year.

Even though Stellar had a rough December, it still ended the experiment solidly in first place followed fairly closely by Bitcoin. This is not a surprise to anyone who's been following the experiment - Stellar has been consistently one of the best performing cryptos each time I report.
Stellar's victory is definitely Pyrrhic, as "winning" 2018 meant losing -66% of its value since January 1st, 2018. Second place Bitcoin? Down -71% on the year.
If that's victory, what's defeat?
Defeat is Cardano and Bitcoin Cash, virtually tied at -94% on the year. For the record, Cardano did slightly worse: my $100 invested in Cardano is now worth $5.97 and my $100 invested in Bitcoin Cash $6.32.
Cardano and Bitcoin Cash are closely followed by NEM and Dash, and all four are members of the "Down Over -90% Club." IOTA's strong December helped it narrowly avoid this distinction as it is now down "only" -89% for the year.
Summary: best performer of 2018 is down -66%, worst performers down -94% and 4 out of 10 cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten have lost over 90% of their value.
I'll just let that sink in for a while.
In terms of movement, there was a lot of it: 40% of the cryptos that started the year in the Top Ten have now dropped out. Here's a chart:
https://preview.redd.it/5p04wxbm0t821.png?width=328&format=png&auto=webp&s=8ddfb3a4f46aa196e56e3b93d4968bc91400900b
Interestingly, the Top Four ended up in the same top positions after 365 days.
On the other hand, NEM, Dash, IOTA, and Cardano are Top Ten dropouts - they have been replaced by EOS (now at #5), Tether (currently at #8), Bitcoin SV (currently at #9), and Tron (currently at #10).

Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:

https://preview.redd.it/clzti39p0t821.png?width=439&format=png&auto=webp&s=13bcd89a9dc2ace72a95edcd6669295aec589c72
December was basically flat, as the total market cap for crypto hovered right around $130B. A nice little pause from four consecutive record low month-end points since the end of August.
Final figure: the total market cap for crypto dropped -77% in 2018.
Looking back, March was the worst month of the year in terms of both overall amount and percentage loss. Best month-end figure was end of January at $485B.
  • The last time the total market cap of crypto was at $500B: January
  • The last time the total market cap of crypto was at $400B: May
  • The last time the total market cap of crypto was at $300B: June
  • The last time the total market cap of crypto was at $200B: November

Bitcoin dominance:

https://preview.redd.it/1xfbsjas0t821.png?width=290&format=png&auto=webp&s=3c2f8bc82402dec6bda2046b62e5da0a3794b273
Bitcoin dominance dropped slightly from the month-end record highs at the end of October and November, but it's basically been holding steady since the end of August, right around the 50% mark. Too early to tell if the slight drop from 53% to 51% Bitcoin dominance from November to December indicates that buyers are looking at more risky alt-coins, we'll have to wait a bit to see if/how that plays out.
As we've seen this throughout the experiment, when the overall market dives, BTC's dominance increases.
  • 33% Bitcoin dominance at the end of January was the lowest month-end point of the year
  • 53.6% Bitcoin dominance at the end of October was the highest month-end point of the year

Overall return on investment from January 1st, 2018:

https://preview.redd.it/vbhh3chw0t821.png?width=281&format=png&auto=webp&s=36430e9b960efc60de2fa286a2265b816cbc0560
If I wrapped up my experiment and cashed out today, my $1000 initial investment would return $151.81, down -85%.
  • Lowest Top Ten portfolio value: December
  • Highest Top Ten portfolio value: January

Implications/Observations:

The numbers back up what all who were even remotely paying attention to crypto this year noticed: 2018 was not 2017. Beginning 2018 at all time highs put this experiment in a difficult position from the start and I was never able to come close to just breaking even - my "best" month was end of January where I was "only" down -20%.
That said, buying mid-January when prices were even higher would have been worse - hard to imagine considering my Top Ten buys on New Years Day have seen a -85% drop - but yes, it could have been even worse.
Congratulations to Stellar who outperformed its peers in 2018 and was consistently among the monthly top performers.
Focusing solely on holding the Top Ten was a losing strategy. While the overall market is down -77% from January, the cryptos that began 2018 in the Top Ten are down -85% over the same period of time. At no point in the experiment has this investment strategy worked: the initial Top Ten continue to under-perform compared to the market overall. The 8% difference is significant, but it has shrunk a bit - it was as wide as a 12% difference at one point during the year (September).
I also tracked the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. After a relatively strong year, the S & P 500 tanked in December, finishing down -6.2% on the year. Had I redirected my $1k investment to the S&P, I would have lost about -$62 on the year.
https://preview.redd.it/mxk3jehy0t821.png?width=384&format=png&auto=webp&s=116d5e2f23d8b3255cb5eea1a75655ea9091bcba

Conclusion:

Tough year for crypto, to say the least. The year end question is the same one we've been asking all year: is there more room to fall or have we finally hit the bottom for crypto?

Thanks and Future of the Experiment:

Thanks for reading and the support for the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful.
As for the future of the experiment, after receiving some good suggestions, I've decided to do the following:
  1. There's no way I'm selling now at such a loss. Therefore, I'll continue to hold and will report on the Top Ten cryptos of 2018 as I've been doing.
  2. I've also decided to repeat the experiment with the Top Ten cryptos of 2019. On the 1st of January 2019, I purchased $100 worth of the Top Ten: Bitcoin, Ripple, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, EOS, Stellar, Tether, Litecoin, Bitcoin SV, and Tron.
I honestly wasn't very enthusiastic to buy $100 worth of some of these coins, but I think it will be interesting to compare the Top Ten of 2018 with the Top Ten of 2019 to see how they fare. I'll share the results regularly - I'm aiming for monthly, as I did in 2018.
So - I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports.
submitted by Joe-M-4 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Stellar Victorious - EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptocurrencies for One Year (2018) - FINAL REPORT FOR 2018 - Down 85%

Stellar Victorious - EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptocurrencies for One Year (2018) - FINAL REPORT FOR 2018 - Down 85%
The end is here.
tl;dr - I am down -85% on my Top Ten crypto portfolio since the beginning of the year. My $1,000 investment on the 1st of January 2018 is now worth $151. Best performer of 2018 is Stellar, down -66%, worst performers down -94% and 4 out of 10 cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten have lost over 90% of their value.
Click here for full blog post complete with charts, graphs, and charts of graphs.

The Experiment:

Instead of hypothetically tracking cryptos throughout the year, I made an actual $1000 investment, $100 in each of the Top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap as of the 1st of January 2018. It began as a lazy man's Index Fund (no weighting or rebalancing), but I've moved away from that terminology as things have changed quite a bit since January 1st, 2018 (plus the term "Index Fund" seems to bring out the shills trying to sell their own Crypto Index Fund product).
My experiment is less technical, more fun (for me at least), and hopefully still a proxy for the entire market- or at the very least an interesting snapshot of the 2018 crypto space. I'm trying to keep it simple and accessible for beginners and those looking to get into crypto but maybe not quite ready to jump in yet.

The Rules:

Buy $100 of each the Top 10 cryptocurrencies on January 1st, 2018. Run the experiment 365 days. Hold only. No selling. No trading. Report monthly.

MONTH/EPISODE TWELVE AND FINAL TALLY - Down 85% in 2018

https://preview.redd.it/jx4d8u662t821.png?width=1187&format=png&auto=webp&s=5a6cbd527492057f939c39f55c0697c454aa3847
December was a quiet month for the experiment - not many fireworks to end the year. Although my portfolio did reach yet another record loss at -85%, it only ticked down one percentage point from the previous month. For comparison, the Dow Jones lost over -6% in December.
Finally tally for the year: I am now down -85% on my Top Ten crypto portfolio since the beginning of the year. My $1,000 investment on the 1st of January 2018 is now worth $151.
December Winners - It was a nice change to see a bit of green on my spreadsheet for the last month of the year. Winners: Ethereum and IOTAup an impressive 39% and 30% respectively. Litecoin ticked up 5% as well.
December Losers - Stellar had an uncharacteristically rough month, losing about 1/3 of its value in December. More predictably NEM, which has been a regular cellar-dweller for many of my monthly reports, fared poorly, down -15% in December.

FINAL RESULTS for 2018 – Stellar wins the experiment followed by Bitcoin. Cardano and Bitcoin Cash in virtual tie for worst performance of the year.

Even though Stellar had a rough December, it still ended the experiment solidly in first place followed fairly closely by Bitcoin. This is not a surprise to anyone who's been following the experiment - Stellar has been consistently one of the best performing cryptos each time I report.
Stellar's victory is definitely Pyrrhic, as "winning" 2018 meant losing -66% of its value since January 1st, 2018. Second place Bitcoin? Down -71% on the year.
If that's victory, what's defeat?
Defeat is Cardano and Bitcoin Cash, virtually tied at -94% on the year. For the record, Cardano did slightly worse: my $100 invested in Cardano is now worth $5.97 and my $100 invested in Bitcoin Cash $6.32.
Cardano and Bitcoin Cash are closely followed by NEM and Dash, and all four are members of the "Down Over -90% Club." IOTA's strong December helped it narrowly avoid this distinction as it is now down "only" -89% for the year.
Summary: best performer of 2018 is down -66%, worst performers down -94% and 4 out of 10 cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten have lost over 90% of their value.
I'll just let that sink in for a while.
In terms of movement, there was a lot of it: 40% of the cryptos that started the year in the Top Ten have now dropped out. Here's a chart:
https://preview.redd.it/zvlgkpd72t821.png?width=328&format=png&auto=webp&s=9d58ec97bfb3c4b742adc30d1244695fbeaf5f64
Interestingly, the Top Four ended up in the same top positions after 365 days.
On the other hand, NEM, Dash, IOTA, and Cardano are Top Ten dropouts - they have been replaced by EOS (now at #5), Tether (currently at #8), Bitcoin SV (currently at #9), and Tron (currently at #10).

Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:

https://preview.redd.it/8w75j6f82t821.png?width=439&format=png&auto=webp&s=c27789f5c6dd3e946bf5c8e29bf285db300c9b41
December was basically flat, as the total market cap for crypto hovered right around $130B. A nice little pause from four consecutive record low month-end points since the end of August.
Final figure: the total market cap for crypto dropped -77% in 2018.
Looking back, March was the worst month of the year in terms of both overall amount and percentage loss. Best month-end figure was end of January at $485B.
  • The last time the total market cap of crypto was at $500B: January
  • The last time the total market cap of crypto was at $400B: May
  • The last time the total market cap of crypto was at $300B: June
  • The last time the total market cap of crypto was at $200B: November

Bitcoin dominance:

https://preview.redd.it/jptpvni92t821.png?width=290&format=png&auto=webp&s=43070ae9fe03aaf451589758825cdc1528432fb6
Bitcoin dominance dropped slightly from the month-end record highs at the end of October and November, but it's basically been holding steady since the end of August, right around the 50% mark. Too early to tell if the slight drop from 53% to 51% Bitcoin dominance from November to December indicates that buyers are looking at more risky alt-coins, we'll have to wait a bit to see if/how that plays out.
As we've seen this throughout the experiment, when the overall market dives, BTC's dominance increases.
  • 33% Bitcoin dominance at the end of January was the lowest month-end point of the year
  • 53.6% Bitcoin dominance at the end of October was the highest month-end point of the year

Overall return on investment from January 1st, 2018:

https://preview.redd.it/rcxjkfra2t821.png?width=281&format=png&auto=webp&s=93cdceaeff7fe5b9c7ab5aa04fdc3f1a6f03d1bf
If I wrapped up my experiment and cashed out today, my $1000 initial investment would return $151.81, down -85%.
  • Lowest Top Ten portfolio value: December
  • Highest Top Ten portfolio value: January

Implications/Observations:

The numbers back up what all who were even remotely paying attention to crypto this year noticed: 2018 was not 2017. Beginning 2018 at all time highs put this experiment in a difficult position from the start and I was never able to come close to just breaking even - my "best" month was end of January where I was "only" down -20%.
That said, buying mid-January when prices were even higher would have been worse - hard to imagine considering my Top Ten buys on New Years Day have seen a -85% drop - but yes, it could have been even worse.
Congratulations to Stellar who outperformed its peers in 2018 and was consistently among the monthly top performers.
Focusing solely on holding the Top Ten was a losing strategy. While the overall market is down -77% from January, the cryptos that began 2018 in the Top Ten are down -85% over the same period of time. At no point in the experiment has this investment strategy worked: the initial Top Ten continue to under-perform compared to the market overall. The 8% difference is significant, but it has shrunk a bit - it was as wide as a 12% difference at one point during the year (September).
I also tracked the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. After a relatively strong year, the S & P 500 tanked in December, finishing down -6.2% on the year. Had I redirected my $1k investment to the S&P, I would have lost about -$62 on the year.
https://preview.redd.it/cvtvzrvb2t821.png?width=384&format=png&auto=webp&s=dc50928366796b4a48812034e2a7b1fff5997652

Conclusion:

Tough year for crypto, to say the least. The year end question is the same one we've been asking all year: is there more room to fall or have we finally hit the bottom for crypto?

Thanks and Future of the Experiment:

Thanks for reading and the support for the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful.
As for the future of the experiment, after receiving some good suggestions, I've decided to do the following:
  1. There's no way I'm selling now at such a loss. Therefore, I'll continue to hold and will report on the Top Ten cryptos of 2018 as I've been doing.
  2. I've also decided to repeat the experiment with the Top Ten cryptos of 2019. On the 1st of January 2019, I purchased $100 worth of the Top Ten: Bitcoin, Ripple, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, EOS, Stellar, Tether, Litecoin, Bitcoin SV, and Tron.
I honestly wasn't very enthusiastic to buy $100 worth of some of these coins, but I think it will be interesting to compare the Top Ten of 2018 with the Top Ten of 2019 to see how they fare. I'll share the results regularly - I'm aiming for monthly, as I did in 2018.
So - I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports.
submitted by Joe-M-4 to Stellar [link] [comments]

WSB101 - THE BOOK OF YOLO: BEGINNERS GUIDE TO TRADING LIKE A DEGENERATE AND EVERYTHING WSB

The Book of Yolo: COMPLETE GUIDE TO WSB
The goal of this is to actually create something that all of you WSB newbies can read - because we’re all tired of seeing the endless wave of uninformed and unavoidable stupidity from those who have never touched the stock market. CALLING ALL NEWFAGS AND NORMIES.
If you can’t read, GFY now.
Now that we will be on the popular section of reddit, this has become pertinent. WSB can't avoid newcomers, so we might as well explain how the clock ticks here. This one is for you all.
This is to serve as a reference what values we hold, what instruments we use, and as a general place to educated the uneducated.
First off, this is the LEAST helpful stock market-based community for newcomers. Sarcastic answers are the only thing of true value here. It isn't a place to learn, but a place to plan out where you will dock your yacht. Newcomers are usually berated upon asking the inevitable stupid questions that they could learn slowly from reading here, or just using a damn search engine. Instead of embarrassing yourself here, you now have the opportunity to read this and get what we’re all rambling about.
This will help you understand what to expect if you make the decision to undertake a WSB style trading career, so you can stay here and contribute to the yolo lifestyle or otherwise GFY.
I will edit in any suggestions that our frequenting users or mods want to add to this as well.
To begin: Here are our topics for WSB101
-Basics (Equities/Stocks)
;
-ETF's
;
-Options
;
-Futures Trading
;
-SubCulture
;
BASICS/EQUTIES Skip if you understand basic stock stuff
Okay, so what is an equity/stock? An equity is essentially what you’d think of as your “vanilla” trading tool. They move up or down depending on market forces, and can range from pennies to thousands of dollars per share. To explain how stocks work, let's define a few terms.
Volume: The number of shares of stock traded during a particular time period, normally measured in average daily trading volume.
Spread: The difference between the bid and the ask price
Bid Price: The current price in which someone wants to buy at
Ask Price:The current price in which someone wants to sell at
Volatility: The WSB favorite. Volatility is referring to the price movements of a stock as a whole. The higher the volatility, the more the stock is moving up or down. Highly volatile stocks are ones with extreme daily up and down movements and wide intraday trading ranges.
Margin: A margin account lets a person borrow money (take out a loan essentially) from a broker to purchase an investment. The difference between the amount of the loan, and the price of the securities, is called the margin. Margin is one of WSB’s popular instruments of wealth and destruction.
Dividend: This is a portion of a company’s earnings that is paid to shareholders, or people that own hat company’s stock, on a quarterly or annual basis. Not all companies do this.
PPS: Acronym for “Price per Share”
Moving Average: A stock’s average price-per-share during a specific period of time.
Bullish: Expecting the stock to go up
Bearish: Expecting the stock to go down
Any raised hands can redirect themselves to here:
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/082614/how-stock-market-works.asp?ad=dirN&qo=investopediaSiteSearch&qsrc=0&o=40186
Now that these terms are defined, let's move into the details of why this is even useful. Most people know what a stock is, but how and why stocks move is a different story. The stock market is essentially a big virtualization of supply and demand - meaning that usually high positive volume creates upwards movement in the PPS, where high negative volume does the opposite. This creates a trader’s opportunity; Generally, the most effective time to buy or sell is where the candlesticks (volume data) are thinning out. When you are ready to take an entry point or execute an exit point, waiting till the volatility (candlesticks) thin out is one method to give you best trade possible.
WSB FAVORITE EQUITIES: Of many equities, WSB favors the riskier ones - but avoiding penny stocks is a policy.
AMD - CEO Lisa Su, Next Gen Processors, chips, graphics. It’s the gamers gambit. Up roughly 1400% as of 2/7/2017 since WSB first mentioned it
NVDA - AMD’s sister? Mother? Daddy? Who knows. NVDA has been a sexy semiconductor leader. Is up 400% since gaining traction on WSB.
FNMA / pfds - Mnunchin, Trump, Big fat fannies. Get your self deep in the fannie. We all want it. WSB 10 bagger candidate for reforming the housing market. WSB holds a large cumulative position that can be seen below. Also a good read is the beginners guide to FNMA. Any post by u/NOVACPA is very often VERY informative on FMNA/pfds.
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/5oissp/results_wsb_fnmafmcc_holdings
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/5t7gba/beginngers_guide_to_fnma_fmcc_read_this_before/
ARRY - A biotech champion that prevailed after a lot of failures and huge losses in the biotech sector. Dark times for WSB. Up ~300% since getting traction on the subreddit.
TWTR - WSB likes to buy put option contracts on her. Exemplary of a social media platform that is unable to monetize itself.
TSLA - Maybe not unanimously a favorite, but loved for it’s sexy volatility, Elon Musk, and ridiculously expensive options.
GILD - A Shkreli pump and dump? The greatest large cap pharma recovery of all time? Who knows. Martin took the time to make a post on this reddit and it is up $5 dollars since.
ETF'S
Welcome to the world of investing made easy. Exchange traded funds (etfs) are devices that can be traded like stocks, but often track the value of many companies by investing in their listed assets accordingly. Specifically, An ETF, or exchange traded fund, is a marketable security that tracks an index, a commodity, bonds, or a basket of assets like an index fund. Unlike mutual funds, an ETF trades like a common stock on a stock exchange. ETFs experience price changes throughout the day as they are bought and sold. ETFs typically have higher daily liquidity and lower fees than mutual fund shares, making them an attractive alternative for individual investors.
ETF’s come in beautiful and delicious varieties, often with a BEAR form and a BULL form of each; but the most delicious to WSB are the 3x etf’s. A 3x ETF is one in which the underlying movement of the ETF is leveraged 3:1. Meaning for every movement within the underlying index or stocks, the 3x ETF moves well.... 3x as much..
WSB FAVORITE AND USEFUL ETF’S:
JNUG - 3x Gold Miner Bull - A hit or miss, has extreme intraday movements and essentially tracks GDX (gold miner’s index). Jnug will usually move with a pretty strong correlation to gold, which is affected by the mentioning of rate hikes (negatively), movement of the US dollar (inversely), uncertainty (positively), and supply and demand.
NUGT - Jnug with a different price tag
JDST - The inverse 3x etf of JNUG - or the bear etf. It does almost exactly the opposite movements of JNUG by the tick. Moves for the same reasons, but obviously opposite directions.
DUST - Jdst with a different price tag.
UGAZ - Natural Gas 3x Bull ETF - essentially tracks the price value of the commodity Natural Gas, but more specifically the S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index ER. The index comprises futures contracts on a single commodity and is calculated according to the methodology of the S&P GSCI Index. Natural gas is most affected by Weather temperature conditions (use your brain), petroleum prices, and broader economic conditions.
DGAZ - Inverse of UGAZ
UWT - Crude Oil Bull 3x ETF - extreme intraday movements, closely follows the price of oil. More specifically, it tracks futures. UWT seeks to replicate, net of expenses, three times of the S&P GSCI® Crude Oil Index ER. The index tracks a hypothetical position in the nearest-to-expiration NYMEX light sweet crude oil futures contract, which is rolled each month into the futures contract expiring in the next month. The value of the index fluctuates with changes in the price of the relevant NYMEX light sweet crude oil futures contracts.
DWT - Inverse of UWT
FAS - Financial Bull, specifically FAS seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 300% of the performance of the Russell 1000 ® Financial Services Index. The fund creates long positions by investing at least 80% of its assets in the securities that comprise the Russell 1000 ® Financial Services Index and/or financial instruments that provide leveraged and unleveraged exposure to the index. Can be used when bullish on US financial services - so banks, lenders, etc.
FAZ - Inverse of FAS
UPRO - S&P500 Bull 3x ETF, essentially tracks the S&P500 and multiplies it’s returns by 3x.
BRZU - Tracks Brazil (in its most basic form). It creates long positions in the MSCI Brazil 25/50 Index.
LABU - Tracks the Biotech sector, or specifically 300% of the performance of the S&P Biotechnology Select Industry Index ("index"). It should be noted that LABU has doubled since just before the election of Donald Trump.
LABD - Inverse of LABU
RUSL - roughly creates 300% of the performance of the MVIS Russia Index.
RUSS - Inverse of RUSL
SPY - Tracks the S&P500, but is not 3x.
OPTIONS:
Alright, so half you are going to understand this, and half of you are not. Pull up an options chain now on any stock (penny stocks and specific stocks do not have chains because of their market cap). Options are truly the ultimate way to achieve maximum risk/reward.
An option is a contract that gives the buyer the right to buy or sell 100 shares of a stock at a certain price, on a certain date. This concept makes options a commodity themselves.
KEY TERMS:
A CALL - is the right to buy. Buying calls is taking a bullish position in its most extreme form.
A PUT - is the right to sell.
The underlying - is the stock that the option is covering i.e. AAPL, GOOG, AMZN
Strike Price - the price at which a put or call option can be exercised.
ITM, In the money - In the money means that a call option's strike price is below the market price of the underlying asset or that the strike price of a put option is above the market price of the underlying asset. Being in the money does not mean you will profit, it just means the option is worth exercising.
OTM, Out of the money - a call option with a strike price that is higher than the market price of the underlying asset, or a put option with a strike price that is lower than the market price of the underlying asset.
ATM - At the money - Strike price at the same price as the underlying
Expiration - Expiries for options are every friday of every week usually, with exceptions such as every month, or every other day - depending on the underlying. SPY and SPX are great examples of very active option chains with expiries every other day. On the expiry date or any time before (with american options), an option can be, but doesn’t have to be exercised, meaning the holder of the option can use it to buy or sell shares of the underlying stock at the strike price. Most people on WSB do not exercise the contracts, but merely flip them for increases in value as the underlying moves.
For example, when AAPL was at 120 before its earnings report, Joe Shmoe Yolo buys 10 FEB 17th CALLS at strike 127 for .60 , each. Now .60 cents is really 60 dollars each, because the contract is multiplied by 100 (the right to 100 shares). In total, Joe Shmoe Yolo spends $600 dollars + commision on this trade. The next day, AAPL leaps to 130 upon great news. These same option contracts are now worth 3.50 each. $350 dollars per contract, times ten contracts is $3500 dollars. Joe Shmoe Yolo just turned $600 into $3500 dollars. MAGIC. Spoiler alert: Joe Shmoe Yolo was me.
That same Joe Shmoe later buys FEB 17th XOM calls at 90, hoping for similar results. However, XOM ends up never reaching anywhere close to the strike price, and the options expire worthless. Get it?
Now what determines the pricing of options?
OPTION PRICING:
Below is sourced from investopedia
Intrinsic Value: The intrinsic value is the actual value of a company or an asset based on an underlying perception of its true value including all aspects of the business, in terms of both tangible and intangible factors. This value may or may not be the same as the current market value. Additionally, intrinsic value is primarily used in options pricing to indicate the amount an option is in the money.
Time Value: Time Value = Option Price - Intrinsic Value. The more time an option has until it expires, the greater the chance it will end up in the money. The time component of an option decays exponentially. The actual derivation of the time value of an option is a fairly complex equation. As a general rule, an option will lose one-third of its value during the first half of its life and two-thirds during the second half of its life. This is an important concept for securities investors because the closer you get to expiration, the more of a move in the underlying security is needed to impact the price of the option. Time value is basically the risk premium that the option seller requires to provide the option buyer the right to buy/sell the stock up to the date the option expires. It is like an insurance premium of the option; the higher the risk, the higher the cost to buy the option. Makes sense, right?
Time value is determined by the expiration date. An expiration date in derivatives is the last day that an options contract is valid. When investors buy options, the contracts gives them the right but not the obligation, to buy or sell the assets at a predetermined price, called a strike price, within a given time period, which is on or before the expiration date. If an investor chooses not to exercise that right, the option expires and becomes worthless, and the investor loses the money paid to buy it.
Volatility:
In an options pricing, you see IV. This stands for implied volatility. The higher that is, the higher the options will be priced Volatility is the extent to which the return of the underlying asset will fluctuate between now and the option's expiration. Volatility, as expressed as a percentage coefficient within option-pricing formulas, arises from daily trading activities. How volatility is measured will affect the value of the coefficient used.
Decaying Nature of Options:
Decay refers to derivative trading (i.e. options). When you sell or buy a call/put (using those two for simplicity purposes) you don't get an infinite time frame to make your dreams come true. Time is your enemy; the further out the expiration date, the less time decay there is. Time decay really hits the worst the week of expiration. Sound confusing? Say you're buying options of the stock WSB (I hope you're seeing what I did there) - and the option costs $1, the expiration is this Friday. Say today is Monday. You buy a call expecting WSB to take you to the moon and beyond. Each day the stock doesn't move closer to your strike price or remains stagnant/drops, you lose value on your option + the time decay. Meaning if it finishes closer to your strike price, your option could be worthless because of that time decay. Questions? Ask away.
A great example of these factors in action is TSLA.
TSLA’s options are among the most expensive for companies in its price range, why?
An in the money TSLA call expiring this week is worth around $1100 per contract. Insanely expensive. But for a reason. TSLA has extreme intraday movements and calls have an implied volatility of 40.92%. Which is fairly high. In addition to that, it holds high intrinsic value / price per share, and a week of time value.
-Futures 101 - The Ultimate YOLO Guide (thanks to u/IncendiaryGames)
Okay, a lot of you have been YOLOing on faggot delights on SPY options. How would you like to trade something with the same or more leverage, 1.0 delta, and no time premium costs? Have you considered futures? What are futures? Unlike options, futures is a contract where both the buyer and seller is obligated to perform the transaction by the expiration. Conversely, in options, only the seller is obligated to perform. That means you can lose more than your investment. Originally they were used by farmers to sell future crops early and guarantee some amount of sales. Since then futures have expanded not just to commodities but currency and equity indices like the S&P 500. Why the heck would I want to trade futures? Here are the advantages: Leverage $5k is the margin requirement for most contracts. For example with the E-mini S&P 500 with 5k you're trading $120k worth of stuff. 1 contract = 500 spy shares. Some brokers offer intraday daytrading margin rates too - TD Ameritrade is 25% of the overnight margin rate($1,250.) Some brokers go as low as $500 an /ES future. SPAN Margin If 24x overnight leverage and 240x day trade leverage didn't give you a hard on there is also SPAN margin, which is like portfolio margin on steroids. The beauty of SPAN margin is you don't need a $125k+ account to be eligible. SPAN will greatly reduce your margin requirements if you hold uncorrelated or inversely correlated positions (up to an 80% discount, here is a list of groups that give discounts) and if you hedge with options. Hedge with the right option or asset and now you have up to 500x day trading margin. 23/7 and day trading Ever get in and out of an equity only to have your broker yell at you to stop doing that or deposit $25k? There is no pattern day trading restrictions on futures. Feel free to day trade and blow up your account as often as you want! You can also trade 23 hours a day. Get trading on how the S&P 500 index will react to news from China right away. Taxes No matter how long or how short you hold you always get taxed under the 60/40 rule. 60% of your profit from futures will be taxed as a long term gain and 40% will be taxed as short term gain. No wash sales. Trade your hearts out. Just remember holding past Dec 31st will treat you as if you closed all your positions that day and you'll be taxed on unrealized gains. Long/Short No need to pay interest or borrow shares as being short a future contract is being a writer, just like an options writer. Options Of course there are options. What fun would it be without options? Unlike stock options each contract gives different number of future contracts. Research what you're trading.
Ok. I'm convinced. I want to strat trading futures! What are some good strategies?
YOLO Strategies
Swing trading Trying to guess/predict/ride sudden market momentum. A low volume average day in the S&P 500 (/ES) for one contract can swing +- $500. Get it right and you can see a huge appreciation of value. /ES is usually highly liquid during regular hours with average volume of 1 million trades and usually bid-ask spreads of one tick. One approach is to buy or short in your direction and put in a stop loss to an amount you're comfortable to lose (say $200.) Since it's so liquid you'll likely be filled at or near your stop loss during the day if your trade goes against you. If you can guess the direction 50% of the time and have trades like this: trade 1 - gain $800 trade 2 - lose $200 Then you may profit over the time period. If you have a 50% chance of being wrong and losing $200 or 50% chance of being right and gaining $800 then over time you'll gain more than you lose. Also, since the present value of your futures contract is included in your margin calculation then if it goes strongly in your favor your position can quickly grow to cover its own margin and you can let it ride for a while. You'll want to be sure you enter a combo buy/short order along with a stop loss order simultaneously, like this for Thinkorswim. Futures can move suddenly and a sudden movement can make you lose a ton of money. Exploiting outdated SPAN margin guidelines There are several out of date correlations between popular futures like oil and say things like wheat that SPAN gives you margin credits on. Take whatever position you want in oil (/cl) then take the opposite in something that doesn't move much day to day with less volatility such as /w (wheat)) and your /cl and /w positions will get a 75% credit, giving you 50% more buying power on crude oil. (2 positions * .25 = 0.5). Trade your heart out on the more volatile future then when you're done close your safer future pair. SPAN is constantly changing but such a complex system definitely has its exploits. Automated/algorithmic trading For you programmer geeks out there it's really hard to algorithmic trade on small accounts due to pattern day trading rules and economies of scale with broker fees. Futures is probably the best way to get your feet wet. Join us on /algotrading if you want to explore more!
Boring safer strategies
I'm including these for completeness but these belong on /investing. Scalping With high frequency trading scalping is less guaranteed. Basically scalping is using tiny momentum as usually there are small micro patterns in futures buying and selling activity where it will rise or fall a couple of ticks. Since the notional value of each tick is $12.5 it's profitable for retail investors and small accounts to act as a market maker after fees at the smallest bid-ask spread possible. Spreads Just like you can trade spreads in options, you can trade calendar spreads in futures. Futures have contracts with different expiration dates and the prices are different for each month of expiration based on the market's expectations. You can go long or short the near month expiration and the opposite for the far month. This will hedge out any sudden market moves as that would likely affect both months. Bull markets in general tend to increase the price of the near month faster than the far month. Basically with a spread trade you're making a long term bet on bull or bear for the underlying future. Pairs trading You can go long in one future say the dow jones (/ym) and short the S&P 500 index and profit off the relative growth. This is a hedged trade as any market ups or downs will likely affect both positions with the same % value. For the past 180 days /ym - /es has been really profitable. Even if you don't do a full perfect pairs trade it is still a great option to reduce the leverage too on whatever index future you're trading so you can stay in longer or overnight. Interest rate and optimal leverage plays Since the $5k investment is equal to $120k of the S&P 500 index currently then you'll likely beat out the market by buying one future contract and putting $115k in safe treasuries or bonds or uncorrelated assets. Some people choose to leverage their stock portfolio and you can get the exact leverage ratio of liquid investments to future ratios. In probability theory the max leverage you can gain is determined by the Kelly Criterion which modeling shows indicates the S&P 500 index to be leveraged to 1.40x. Yes, you could do the same with options but even on SPY deep in the money call leaps are illiquid and have a time premium. Even today they are so deep ITM that the options you would need to use have 0 open interest and a bid-ask spread of $5 per share (so $500 per contract.) You'd need ~5 contracts per 120k so you're already eating $2.5k/$120k - 2% interest rate a year for that leverage. SPX isn't better, it's bid ask is 22 so you'd be eating $2.2k/$120k - 1.83% interest rate. It's doubtful you won't get much past the ask as its only market makers providing liquidity and guess what the market maker will do if you buy/sell the option? They will hedge with the underlying futures until their minimum profit is the risk free interest rate. Hedging Going long and short in various non correlated or negatively correlated assets to seek out a high sharpe ratio and have a higher risk free return that is market neutral. Basic hedge fund stuff. The variety and price efficiency of futures makes things pretty attractive in this area.
SUBCULTURE
Wallstreetbets is a community that has become infamous for the most wild west, moon or cardboard box trades on the planet earth. WSB is a place where you can take out thousand dollar loans, refinance your homes, cash advance all of your credit cards only to put it all on JNUG, and we will still love you. Your mother won't. Your father will never understand your spectrum of autism, but we will always love you. It is a uniquely beautiful community focused on praising its biggest losers as much as its biggest winners. To begin on the subculture, we should define some key moments in the sub's history.
HISTORY: (As made by u/digadiga) + my additions
2012: Jartek [+1] creates /wallstreetbets, and word slowly starts to ooze out. 2013: americanpegasus discovers pennies. AP has seen the light, and is a penny stock evangelist. Jartek & AP have an epic options vs pennies battle - they both lose a couple of hundred bucks, but we are entertained, and WSB is officially born. AP blows up his retirement, swears off pennies and moves onto bitcoins. 2014: fscomeau [+3] discovers options. He repeatedly bets five figures on AAPL calls before earnings. FS claims a supernatural clairvoyance of AAPL. FS then posts about his chest pains and ER visits. He finally suffers an epic loss. Is he dead? Is he alive? Is he is mother? Is he banned? Who cares? 2015: Photos from the 3rd annual meetup are posted. Where a bunch of dudes hang out on the romantic beaches of Guerrero Mexico. In a completely unrelated event, the wsb banner is changed to thousands of ejaculating dicks. Modpocalypse occurs. Hundreds of random users are added as moderators for a few months. None of the new mods can change the CSS. The constant whining about how "wsb isn't what it used to be" continues. Someone attempts to show how selling covered calls is idiot proof, but gets lazy, bets all six figures on Apple, and suffers significant losses. Robinhood gets popular. Should you buy one share of AMZN or one share of GOOGL? Who gives a fuck. 2016: Everyone starts saying "go fuck yourself." Except me. Because I am what I am. And if you don't like it, you can all go fuck yourselves. u/World_Chaos performs one of the more impressive yolo's of the sub, starting with 900 dollars, and turning it into 55k. https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/414blh/yofuckinglo_900_to_55k_in_12_days/?ref=share&ref_source=link 2017: u/fscomeau preforms what he calls "The Final Yolo", a 300k trade against AAPL before earnings (that I, u/thor303456 inversed), supposedly supposed to net fscomeau 2.5 million or so, in which he will finally stop trading. FSC is featured on several market related articles and newspapers, showing up on yahoo, etc. Later we find proof during his livestream of AAPL earnings that he was paper trading. Even later, FSC writes a near 200 page book called "Wolfie Has Fallen" describing how he trolled the entire internet, some following him into that AAPL trade. Martin Shkreli visits the sub and proclaims that GILD pharma is worth over $100 a share and is deeply undervalued.
KEY FIGURES:
Donald J Trump - He is the Marmalade Manchurian, the Tangerine Tycoon, and our spray tan Stalin. Unbelievable night of election. WSB demographics show a primarily capitalist and right wing (or at least joking to be so) point of view, and thus we are generally pro trump. In actuality though, WSB is focused on pro-market, which Trump happens to be.
u/Jartek - Founder of the sub, original yoloer. Believe he has retired from reddit for the most part. Mostly inactive.
u/Fscomeau - The Canadian as some call him, and perhaps one of the most profound internet trolls of 2016-2017. A French-Canadian trader who deals with mostly options. The man has been called "The Great Inverse", and for a good reason. Nearly all of the trades or statements he made on WSB were completely wrong or mostly wrong. Truly the strongest technical indicator.
Martin Shkreli - An idol to many WSBers, Martin stands as the master of the biotech sector. A very debated character for very stupid reasons. Martin regularly tweets about the stock market, occasionally does a youtube channel, and livestreams fairly regularly.
u/theycallme1 - Educated trader, and mod of WSB. Roasts people often and roasts them good. Ask him the questions that aren't stupid. One of the most active mods.
u/world_chaos - some fucking college student with some real net worth. Sits on 100k or so (needs verification), and was an inspiring yoloer to all, with his 900 to 55k yolo with options.
Lingo, Terminology, and Nomenclature:
The Faggots Delights - Truly the most suicidal, yet clearest shot to the moon. This term is usually used to define either weekly, or daily option plays on the SPY/SPX. Some users trade them very profitably, such as u/MRPguy and many in the past.
Cuck - Truly the worst thing you could be. A cuck is a man who likes watching his wife/girlfriend fuck other guys. Weak, spineless, and a term often throw around here.
The YOLO - You only live once. This is something that is, and should be realized as undeniably true. Why are you sitting on a 5k emergency fund that is making you less interest in a year than what I just made in 10 minutes? Why haven't you used all of the credit on your 5 credit cards or used your testicles as collateral for a loan yet? YOLO or YOLOING is as much a psychological decision to embrace absurdism, and win with everything you have while risking it all. Yolo is what it means to be a WSB trader.
Bagholding or a Bagholder - When you're stuck with the most ass trade of your life, because you know it'll go back up. A bagholder is the 59 year old guy at the grocery store who won't quit his Job because he knows he only has to wait another year until he gets a return on his investment (of his life). Anyone holding SUNEQ is the definition of a bagholder.
Autists - Something we embrace, something we call each other, something we all are. Autism isn't used in an offensive way as much as it is a generally accepted term that defines us. The best traders have autism because of their distance from emotion. I bet you never made it to this part of the reading because you're such a damn autist.
Tendies - Tendies are what you get after you make a small amount of money. "I SOLD AMD TODAY FOR A $13 DOLLAR PROFIT, GOING TO MCD's TO GET MY TENDIES". Tendie money is usually shameful and insignificant, but at least it got you tendies. Chicken tenders at McDonalds are the least expensive for the most cholesterol.
I know some of the writing was half ass, full of errors, or otherwise not the best explanation. But I believe this will serve its purpose, and maybe help to promote new ideas from moderately educated traders. WSB has very strong traders, and the most uniquely risky trading styles on the planet. Hopefully this can serve to better the overall community.
You guys are all faggots, upvote this so we can get the noobs to stop trying to bite on our cocks.
Also I'd really appreciate input on anything to add to this overall. It took my over 3 hours to write up, so I eventually grew tired and probably have missing spots.
Enjoy your time here at WSB.
EDIT: Added a shit ton of stuff, fixed errors. THANKS FOR ALL OF YOUR INPUT, ACTUALLY MAKING WSB GREAT AGAIN
MODS: Can we make this editable by others mods or something? My fingers aren't enough. Seems like this could serve as a good "official" thing. Paging u/theycallme1 u/CHAINSAW_VASECTOMY etc
submitted by Thor303456 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptocurrencies for One Year (2018) - FINAL REPORT FOR 2018 - Down 85% - Stellar Victorious

EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptocurrencies for One Year (2018) - FINAL REPORT FOR 2018 - Down 85% - Stellar Victorious
The end is here.
tl;dr - I am down -85% on my Top Ten crypto portfolio since the beginning of the year. My $1,000 investment on the 1st of January 2018 is now worth $151. Best performer of 2018 is Stellar, down -66%, worst performers down -94% and 4 out of 10 cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten have lost over 90% of their value.
Click here for full blog post complete with charts, graphs, and charts of graphs.

The Experiment:

Instead of hypothetically tracking cryptos throughout the year, I made an actual $1000 investment, $100 in each of the Top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap as of the 1st of January 2018. It began as a lazy man's Index Fund (no weighting or rebalancing), but I've moved away from that terminology as things have changed quite a bit since January 1st, 2018 (plus the term "Index Fund" seems to bring out the shills trying to sell their own Crypto Index Fund product).
My experiment is less technical, more fun (for me at least), and hopefully still a proxy for the entire market- or at the very least an interesting snapshot of the 2018 crypto space. I'm trying to keep it simple and accessible for beginners and those looking to get into crypto but maybe not quite ready to jump in yet.

The Rules:

Buy $100 of each the Top 10 cryptocurrencies on January 1st, 2018. Run the experiment 365 days. Hold only. No selling. No trading. Report monthly.

MONTH/EPISODE TWELVE AND FINAL TALLY - Down 85% in 2018

https://preview.redd.it/9xtqjbxu2t821.png?width=1187&format=png&auto=webp&s=8a3bd521eaf1cc0e2c49d582fa7a4f9b2180040f
December was a quiet month for the experiment - not many fireworks to end the year. Although my portfolio did reach yet another record loss at -85%, it only ticked down one percentage point from the previous month. For comparison, the Dow Jones lost over -6% in December.
Finally tally for the year: I am now down -85% on my Top Ten crypto portfolio since the beginning of the year. My $1,000 investment on the 1st of January 2018 is now worth $151.
December Winners - It was a nice change to see a bit of green on my spreadsheet for the last month of the year. Winners: Ethereum and IOTAup an impressive 39% and 30% respectively. Litecoin ticked up 5% as well.
December Losers - Stellar had an uncharacteristically rough month, losing about 1/3 of its value in December. More predictably NEM, which has been a regular cellar-dweller for many of my monthly reports, fared poorly, down -15% in December.

FINAL RESULTS for 2018 – Stellar wins the experiment followed by Bitcoin. Cardano and Bitcoin Cash in virtual tie for worst performance of the year.

Even though Stellar had a rough December, it still ended the experiment solidly in first place followed fairly closely by Bitcoin. This is not a surprise to anyone who's been following the experiment - Stellar has been consistently one of the best performing cryptos each time I report.
Stellar's victory is definitely Pyrrhic, as "winning" 2018 meant losing -66% of its value since January 1st, 2018. Second place Bitcoin? Down -71% on the year.
If that's victory, what's defeat?
Defeat is Cardano and Bitcoin Cash, virtually tied at -94% on the year. For the record, Cardano did slightly worse: my $100 invested in Cardano is now worth $5.97 and my $100 invested in Bitcoin Cash $6.32.
Cardano and Bitcoin Cash are closely followed by NEM and Dash, and all four are members of the "Down Over -90% Club." IOTA's strong December helped it narrowly avoid this distinction as it is now down "only" -89% for the year.
Summary: best performer of 2018 is down -66%, worst performers down -94% and 4 out of 10 cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten have lost over 90% of their value.
I'll just let that sink in for a while.
In terms of movement, there was a lot of it: 40% of the cryptos that started the year in the Top Ten have now dropped out. Here's a chart:
https://preview.redd.it/edx09fsv2t821.png?width=328&format=png&auto=webp&s=fdd3f1fd658e48943f2d012e910d27d8a17a32ac
Interestingly, the Top Four ended up in the same top positions after 365 days.
On the other hand, NEM, Dash, IOTA, and Cardano are Top Ten dropouts - they have been replaced by EOS (now at #5), Tether (currently at #8), Bitcoin SV (currently at #9), and Tron (currently at #10).

Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:

https://preview.redd.it/rli9zc7x2t821.png?width=439&format=png&auto=webp&s=cdef69e9d971979efd622e8bc0dd79759a15df1a
December was basically flat, as the total market cap for crypto hovered right around $130B. A nice little pause from four consecutive record low month-end points since the end of August.
Final figure: the total market cap for crypto dropped -77% in 2018.
Looking back, March was the worst month of the year in terms of both overall amount and percentage loss. Best month-end figure was end of January at $485B.
  • The last time the total market cap of crypto was at $500B: January
  • The last time the total market cap of crypto was at $400B: May
  • The last time the total market cap of crypto was at $300B: June
  • The last time the total market cap of crypto was at $200B: November

Bitcoin dominance:

https://preview.redd.it/96vcv6wx2t821.png?width=290&format=png&auto=webp&s=0e7d32b1577950f0625e907572da331175322dca
Bitcoin dominance dropped slightly from the month-end record highs at the end of October and November, but it's basically been holding steady since the end of August, right around the 50% mark. Too early to tell if the slight drop from 53% to 51% Bitcoin dominance from November to December indicates that buyers are looking at more risky alt-coins, we'll have to wait a bit to see if/how that plays out.
As we've seen this throughout the experiment, when the overall market dives, BTC's dominance increases.
  • 33% Bitcoin dominance at the end of January was the lowest month-end point of the year
  • 53.6% Bitcoin dominance at the end of October was the highest month-end point of the year

Overall return on investment from January 1st, 2018:

https://preview.redd.it/wc77vyxy2t821.png?width=281&format=png&auto=webp&s=d00cd07109872e73249b1f8b378169620dbf25fa
If I wrapped up my experiment and cashed out today, my $1000 initial investment would return $151.81, down -85%.
  • Lowest Top Ten portfolio value: December
  • Highest Top Ten portfolio value: January

Implications/Observations:

The numbers back up what all who were even remotely paying attention to crypto this year noticed: 2018 was not 2017. Beginning 2018 at all time highs put this experiment in a difficult position from the start and I was never able to come close to just breaking even - my "best" month was end of January where I was "only" down -20%.
That said, buying mid-January when prices were even higher would have been worse - hard to imagine considering my Top Ten buys on New Years Day have seen a -85% drop - but yes, it could have been even worse.
Congratulations to Stellar who outperformed its peers in 2018 and was consistently among the monthly top performers.
Focusing solely on holding the Top Ten was a losing strategy. While the overall market is down -77% from January, the cryptos that began 2018 in the Top Ten are down -85% over the same period of time. At no point in the experiment has this investment strategy worked: the initial Top Ten continue to under-perform compared to the market overall. The 8% difference is significant, but it has shrunk a bit - it was as wide as a 12% difference at one point during the year (September).
I also tracked the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. After a relatively strong year, the S & P 500 tanked in December, finishing down -6.2% on the year. Had I redirected my $1k investment to the S&P, I would have lost about -$62 on the year.
https://preview.redd.it/phxacotz2t821.png?width=384&format=png&auto=webp&s=3234c1f75a7766857df7b5fe96dccab9c5a60ad6

Conclusion:

Tough year for crypto, to say the least. The year end question is the same one we've been asking all year: is there more room to fall or have we finally hit the bottom for crypto?

Thanks and Future of the Experiment:

Thanks for reading and the support for the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful.
As for the future of the experiment, after receiving some good suggestions, I've decided to do the following:
  1. There's no way I'm selling now at such a loss. Therefore, I'll continue to hold and will report on the Top Ten cryptos of 2018 as I've been doing.
  2. I've also decided to repeat the experiment with the Top Ten cryptos of 2019. On the 1st of January 2019, I purchased $100 worth of the Top Ten: Bitcoin, Ripple, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, EOS, Stellar, Tether, Litecoin, Bitcoin SV, and Tron.
I honestly wasn't very enthusiastic to buy $100 worth of some of these coins, but I think it will be interesting to compare the Top Ten of 2018 with the Top Ten of 2019 to see how they fare. I'll share the results regularly - I'm aiming for monthly, as I did in 2018.
So - I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports.
submitted by Joe-M-4 to CryptoMarkets [link] [comments]

VeChain. Review

VeChain. Review

https://preview.redd.it/fq2w9k7xftm11.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=78fc74b132b92d4922f8d45e82fac61d59b9e26b
Cryptoindex is a tool for exposure to the cryptomarket and serves as a smart benchmark for all cryptocurrencies. The AI-based Cryptoindex algorithm is continuously analyzing more than 1000 coins applying over 170 factors, processing more than 1 million signals per second to provide a highly sophisticated index of the top 100 coins.
You can find our previous reviews here:
Dash. Review - August 2018. Binance Coin. Review IOTA. Review. August - 2018 NEM.Overview Ethereum Classic.Review TRON overview. Cardano - review. Future plans. Ripple - review. Further Perspectives Litecoin. June'18 overview The Dow Jones index. From where did it come to us? Bitcoin Cash. June 2018 overview Are cryptocurrency indices a new crypto market trend? EOS. End of May'18 overview Ethereum. May 2018 overview
Here on our Cryptoindex blog, we will be posting 100 articles about each of the top performing coins selected by our powerful AI algorithm#CIX100coinreview.
Today’s review: VeChain
The History of VeChain
The Project was launched on 19 August 2017. The non-profit organization VeChain Foundation dealt with the development and management of the project.
Unlike its competitors, VeChain’s team had more experience in using blockade as a technology. For many years the company developing in many industries, which allowed it to take the leading place in the world market.
The main activity of VeChain is logistics and quality assurance. The emphasis is on food and luxury goods. Each stage of creation and logistics of the goods is entered in the blockchain which protects against any changes in the data. The changes are available for public inspection, which makes it easy to coordinate the actions of the company's units, simplifies the external control of institutional organizations and allows consumers to access the history of the facility.
Thanks to the cooperation of different companies, they were able to create ready-made solutions for integration into a number of areas:
  • Logistics;
  • AIC;
  • Food industry and pharmacology;
  • Luxuries;
  • Public services.
VeChain products consist of two parts. Intelligence chips (NFC, RFID), or QR codes that allow you to identify objects. Blockchain-as-a-Service consolidates all information into a single network, which provides online access, analysis, data control. When they interact, an Internet of things (IoT) is created, which benefits both producers and consumers. In addition to tracking the movement, symbiosis with IoT allows to optimize the quantitative and qualitative indicators in the process of growing and producing food products, as well as to simplify the work of state control bodies.
While VeChain has implemented several new protocols to improve smart contracts, their main goal is to avoid specialization in logistics and create a universal network with a wide range of tools for developing decentralized applications. After switching to its own platform, it is planned to exchange the current VEN tokens to new VETs and add an additional internal resource (THOR) to work inside the network. It will gradually accumulate from the owners of the tokens by analogy with GAS in NEO. Changes will also affect the principle of consensus: a transition to PoS is planned. In addition, a separate purse will be offered.
Team
Management of the project is carried out by Sunny Lu. Previously, he was a co-founder of the Chinese Internet company BitSe, which created the cryptocurrency giant Qtum. Prior to that, he held the position of Chief Operating Officer and CIO of the Chinese representation of Louis Vuitton. The VeChain cryptocurrency project has one of the largest teams of about 60 people.
Advantages and disadvantages
The project intends to take the leading position in the cryptocurrency market and makes a lot of efforts to achieve this goal. The community unambiguously assesses VeChain's focus on moving into a new segment and competing with Ethereum, Cardano, and NEO. The project has a number of obvious advantages:
  • An experienced team of developers, consisting of more than 60 reputable experts;
  • 111 existing network nodes in five countries;
  • Cooperation with major well-known companies (Renault Group, Microsoft, BMW, BABYGHOST, DiG, PwC);
  • A clear development plan that is being successfully implemented;
  • Scalability of the network, which ensures stable operation in any area of ​​the real economy;
  • The regular growth of attention of investors, business;
  • Positive market dynamics;
  • Further diversification of the services is planned.
There are also disadvantages. Some believe that the project too quickly "inflates" its own scale. This can negatively affect both the quality of services and strategic success. In the narrow segment of logistics on the basis of the block, the project has only one competitor and in the sphere of basic platforms for creating smart contracts and decentralized applications, there is very strong competition and promising participants who regularly improve their work. In addition, the consequences of migration from the block air of the etherium, new opportunities for consensus, additional internal resources are still not known exactly. Initially, there may be technical problems in the stability of the system.
Further prospects
VeChain Thor positions itself as the leading platform based on blockbuster technology for the corporate sector. Such ambitions have recently been confirmed by the conclusion of deals with new partners. After the Cryptocurrency was added to the portfolio of international consulting company PwC, its position on the market has significantly strengthened, the position in the rating is gradually improving. Recently BMW joined the list of partners, which led to a new growth of the course. The Chinese government also cooperates with the project in several directions at once (quality control of products, purchases, a creation of a smart city). After creating a strong team and attracting the giants of the world market, the project may well be considered one of the most promising for today. VeChain Thor helps in the fight against counterfeit currency, and this is a very promising idea. According to CNN, the turnover of this shadow sector reaches $ 450 billion a year, so large producers are very interested in returning their market share.
Conclusion
The project has good potential and takes the leading place on the coinmarketcap. The capitalization of the virtual currency in 2017-2018 increased from $ 57 million to $ 2 billion, and at the peak amounted to $ 3.3 billion. This indicates a great confidence of users in the platform and its development.
At the time this article was published, VeChain makes up 0.357% of the total of CryptoIndex portfolio.You can always check the current CIX100 composition on our MVP platform: http://cryptoindex.ai/
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submitted by Cryptoindex-io to CryptoIndex_io [link] [comments]

Dear community! Check our new review about Ethereum Classic.

Dear community! Check our new review about Ethereum Classic.

Ethereum Classic.Review

https://preview.redd.it/3sa05ay67af11.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=791d6abb010d8adaf004279b956ee6f53013cf48
Cryptoindex is a tool for exposure to the cryptomarket and will serve as a great potential smart benchmark for all cryptocurrencies. The AI-based Cryptoindex algorithm is continuously analyzing more than 1000 coins applying over 170 factors, processing more than 1 million signals per second to provide a highly sophisticated index of the top 100 coins. You can find our previous reviews here:
TRON overview. Ripple - review. Further Perspectives Litecoin. June'18 overview The Dow Jones index. From where did it come to us? Bitcoin Cash. June 2018 overview Are cryptocurrency indices a new crypto market trend? EOS. End of May'18 overview Ethereum. May 2018 overview
Here on our Cryptoindex blog, we will be posting 100 articles about each of the top performing coins selected by our powerful AI algorithm#CIX100coinreview.
Today’s review: Ethereum Classic.
How was it?
The main network Ethereum was launched by Vitalik Buterin in 2015, as the Hard fork from Ethereum Classic on the block 1 900 000. Many users confuse this fact and believe that Ethereum Classic originated from Ethereum, but it did not.
Ethereum is a decentralized system.. Whilst Ethereum Classic has a similar function as ETH, including the creation and launch of smart contracts and decentralized application; However, it has some very different features, including the average block creation time, its size and reward to the miners.
Currently, there are three teams working on the Ethereum Classic network:
ETC Dev team of 6 people led by Igor Artamonovym develops Geth Classic. Ethereum Commonwealth team is working to create a Raiden network, ERC223, SWARM. The team is headed by the anonymous developer Dexaran from the Ehtereum Classic community. IOHK Grothendieck team - works on a client written in Scala. IOHK is headed by CEO Charles Hoskinson, co-founder of Ethereum and Ethereum Foundation.
Problems with DAO
The DAO is a decentralized autonomous organization. At the time of its appearance, the DAO positioned itself as an organization devoid of any staff or directors. Being a cloud platform, the share of which can be obtained by investing personal funds (in the form of ETH) and buying DAO-tokens on them, grants the right to participate in management of the invested collective funds.
The fund gained momentum and attracted the attention not only of investors and hackers. The result did not take long to wait and on Friday, June 17, there was a break-in. More than $ 50 million was stolen.
Following this, a huge community gathered around Ethereum and split into two camps the heated discussions commenced. Some suggested making a hard-core network, others opposed. Conservatives insisted that at one of their conferences Vitalik Buterin argued that the code - It is a law, which is unacceptable.
If we compare the two coins, then both advantages and disadvantages are apparent, but ETH still remains the dominant currency, as it has a larger market capitalization.
There are also significant differences between the two platforms:
Processing of network blocks- This process takes about 25 seconds for the ethereum and 14 seconds for the ethereum classic.
The volume of blocks- The ETH blocks are closed after reaching a daily number of transactions of 500 thousand. This is fraught with similar problems, as, for bitcoin, it can lead to an increase in the commission. The Ehtereum classic is not yet overloaded, but the situation may change if the flow of transactions increases.
Ethereum can make a hard fork in anytime- Ethereum Classic - can not.
Compatibility- While both networks are compatible, so written in one of them, smart contracts can run in the other. In addition, Ethereum seeks to open its platform through eWASM, pushing the issue of security contracts to second place. ETC puts more emphasis on smart contracts with higher security.
Features of the development- The initiator of most decisions in the ETH is the Ethereum Foundation. In ETC, the bulk of the solutions are the result of the work from three teams, sadly the lack of cohesion and feedback from the community it creates in a less desirable result.
Project Prospects
Unfortunately, most users still prefer Ethereum. Ethereum Classic has left a questionable reputation for DAO, which has been reflected in the number of users., No major project has been placed on the platform, which means that it will not make the TOP-5 at this rate.
The project has a fully functioning platform, several development teams, a fairly large community, including investors and active traders. ETC, on the one hand, is one step behind, and on the other hand, a step ahead, because as for testing the platform for them will be the forged Ethereum Vitalika Buterina, and Ethereum Classic will take from there only the best and already tested for them. Unlike its fork, Ethereum Classic has a more favorable pricing scheme meaning the cost of transactions is substantially lower than his fork. At the time of this writing, it is more than $ 1.5 billion.
At the time of writing, Ethereum Classic[ETC] is 0.671% of the total of CryptoIndex portfolio. You can always check the current CIX100 composition at our MVP platform: http://cryptoindex.ai/
Stay updated on our channels: Follow CRYPTOINDEX on Telegram Follow CRYPTOINDEX on Medium Follow CRYPTOINDEX on Twitter Follow CRYPTOINDEX on Facebook Follow CRYPTOINDEX on Linkedin Follow CRYPTOINDEX on Reddit
submitted by kkkc to CryptoIndex_io [link] [comments]

The (long-term) case for Bitcoin.

Here is why I think Bitcoin makes sense as a investment/hedge. TL:DR: From a macroeconomic outlook our economy is messed up in so many ways, thanks to central planners like Janet Yellen. The currency-wars have only begun, smart money will look for a way to hedge their currency exposure.
Money
Money is one of man’s greatest inventions. Since we left the barter system and started using mediums of exchange, different types of mediums has been used for trading. Gold, grain, salt amongst others, gold obviously being the most famous one. The right to redeem those papers you hold in your wallet for gold ended in a peculiar fashion with the death of Bretton Woods, and ever since then, we've been trading in fiat.(1). Like art, the intrinsic value of gold is definitely questionable. Yes, everyone does seem to desire gold, still it has very limited usefulness. Paper money being a lot worse, one could argue these unredeemable paper notes are worth as much as regular paper. But the fact that you need this fiat-money to pay taxes gives the market certainty of demand in the future, which I believe is the main reason why the markets are able to attribute these notes value.
Governmental control of money
As fiat became the predominant transmitter of wealth in our economy, governmental control over money increased. From a naive standpoint that power shift could seem unsignificant, but I would argue it has given us a profound shift in real economic activities. Money in the form of gold had a certain inflation built in to it, since people continuously dig it up from the ground. Yet the gold-economy saw price deflation as production became more efficient, thanks to the invisible hand of the market and advancements in technology. These deflationary powers were at times greater than the inflation coming from new gold findings. This might seem a little off topic but what I want to say is that price-deflation has historically been the norm, and shouldn't be viewed as dangerous. In todays fiat-world however, we hear about central banks trying to fight deflation, believing such an environment would be bad for the labour market. The argument being that workers have a hard time accepting lower nominal wages, and that this causes overwhelming troubles for companies when they have to cut labour costs. Although fairly logical, I think this theory is disputed by our economic history and should, in my (not so) humble opinion, definitely not be taken as a fact. However, today when we hear about central banks fighting deflation, what they're really fighting is a credit crunch. Debt, also a form of money, has been growing increasingly. Although taking a short break 07/08, the debt in ratio to almost everything, is a lot greater today than ever before. A deleveraging of debt would shrink the amount of debt-money (largely concentrated in stocks/bonds/real estate) and this is what centralbanks are fighting, their job is basically to get this overly leveraged economy more leveraged. Needless to say, we're in uncharted territory and their might be huge systemic risks involved.
Government deficits and unfunded liabilities
At which rate would you be willing to loan money to Greece? This one is really a no-brainier, meaning you shouldn't have to think to come up with an answer, since Greece wouldn't pay you back either way. Greece has a enormous debt and a whole lot of unfunded liabilities. These unfunded liabilities are mostly consisting of workers pensions and healthcare obligations to the greek people. Greek politicians will always rank these payment obligations as a higher priority expenditure than to give "greedy speculators" back their money. That simple fact holds true for most government bonds. Therefore I think almost all government bonds are worth substantially less than they are being priced today. Right now the market deems these bonds as low-risk assets. For example, the U.S 10-year bond yields around 2%. In other words; you'll get close to no return (if the FED manages to reach close to its inflation target) for loaning out your money to the worlds largest debtor nation for a period of ten years. This anomaly is so great and profound, it should be viewed as a major indicator on just how messed up things have become. How did we get these absurd yields? Well, demand for bonds drive the yields down, and ever since the financial crisis central banks like the FED and ECB has been on a buying spree. Speculators joined them in their buying and have been betting on the the continuing bondpurchasing from the CB's, or holding a belief that the CB's will be unable to reach inflation targets, basically taking a bet on deflation. In a real market economy (not driven by central banks) with a low savings rate like the United States, these bonds would yield a lot more. The fact is the U.S, much like Greece, can’t repay its debt, ever, it’s impossible, nope, can’t be done. The U.S national debt is around 18 trillion dollars and their unfunded liabilities sums up to another whopping 210 trillion (as testified to congress by Boston university economic professor Laurence Kotlikoff).(2) Even though a lot of these future expenditures as Kotlikoff is including in his measurment could be slashed, some of them, like pensions, are going to be extremely unpopular to cut. I would say the writing has been on the wall for quite some time.
Default or inflate
The question we should ask ourselves is whether they’ll inflate their currency and repay their debt in dollars that are worth less, or if they’re simply going to default. In the former case we could see a German-like inflation with barrels of money to buy bread. In the latter case we could see the economy as we know it coming to a grinding halt. Either way I believe this anomaly will sort itself out in the end. I strongly believe that this interference with the market, basically not allowing price discovery to take place, has paved the way for certain economic disasters. Something that has been argued for a long time by gold-bugs and various outspoken skeptics. Although gold certainly would be a good trade for such an environment, I would not recommend buying gold at your friendly bank. Taking a lesson from what happened in the last crisis banks seem to have a high risk of defaulting, which would leave them unable to deliver on your gold position in the paper markets. I also fear the gold backing up the claims of gold is too small and I suspect this could potentially lead to a collapse in the gold paper market. I do like goldmining companies though, especially the one's with a low price to book value. I'm imagining it would be a lot harder for a bank to default on your ownership of a company. Either way, this is were Bitcoin really shines, it doesn't leave you with a risk of being screwed by a defaulting bank. All you would need to cash out on this "put option" is a computer and internet access.
Fear of haircuts
If this whole experiment with low interest rates fails, and economic chaos indeed ensues, I expect governments around the world to act in a similar fashion as seen in Greece/Argentine. Bank depositors will most likely have to take a haircut on their deposits to refinance the system. This is the most crucial part of why you should own bitcoins. I believe the threat of this bail-in approach to reach debt-equilibrium in the financial world, will drive people to assets which cannot be confiscated. As Reuters report, this bail-in legislation is now being extended to other EU countries, regardless of whether they're in the Euro or not.(3).We’ve already seen some correlations of the Bitcoin price with bad economic sentiment, and I expect that trend to catch on as time proceeds. The most clear cut example of this we got during the summer, with the increase in demand for bitcoins during the Greek-crisis. The day Greece reached an agreement with its creditors - Bitcoin dropped 12%. Yet, recent volatility in global stocks has not been accompanied with upward pressure on Bitcoin. When Dow Jones fell a thousand points intraday, Bitcoin fell as well, suggestion the link between financial instability and the value of Bitcoin at least for now is rather weak. But if we take a look at Argentine and their post collapse economy (after suffering a bond market collapse and soaring inflation), we find it is here where bitcoin is having the most impact as an actual money transmitter. As NYT notes ”Argentine has been quietly gaining renown in technology circles as the first, and almost only place where bitcoins are being regularly used by ordinary people for real commercial transactions.”(4)
Valuation and risk
First of all, one should obviously not invest more than what's bearable to lose, since there's still a nontrivial chance of bitcoin having the value of zero in the future. Today the Bitcoin market cap is about 5 billion dollars. Besides a small market cap, the uncertainty of demand and the arguably lack of intrinsic value is two of its biggest weaknesses. Even if you believe in the idea of a digital currency, Bitcoin is far from the only one out there. There's competition in the form of other cryptocurrencies with similar but different properties, and only the future will tell which of these (if any) will come out on top. As for now though, Bitcoin has established itself as the clear frontrunner. There is also a high governmental risk involved. If our political leaders start seeing this digital money as a threat to its powers of taxation, or fears grow about what it might do to enable shady transactions, it will certainly go out of its way to try and stop it. Even though the Bitcoin as a system itself is resiliencent to government intervention, one could easily foresee regulation aimed to strangle Bitcoin companies operating in the real world, making mass adoption a lot less likely. So far the western world haven’t cracked down too much on Bitcoin, in some places it has even been declared as a currency, not a commodity, meaning any potential gains in one's holding in those countries would be free from taxation. I'll leave the risks of the underlying technology to be explained by someone else, but google the words Bitcoin+fork and you'll find another very good reason not to go full retard in bitcoins.
References: (1) https://history.state.gov/milestones/1969-1976/nixon-shock (2) http://cnsnews.com/news/article/barbara-hollingsworth/economist-tells-congress-us-may-be-worse-fiscal-shape-greece (3) http://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCAKBN0OD14Z20150528 (4) http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/03/magazine/how-bitcoin-is-disrupting-argentinas-economy.html?_r=0
submitted by UngochNaiv to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

The case for Bitcoin

I posted this on my blog a couple of weeks ago, and since Bitcoin has been getting a lot of press lately I thought investing might be interested. Also bitcoinmarkets pretty much hated it and told me to post it here instead.
I won't be going in too deep of the underlying technology behind it, cause, you know..it's boring as shit. Of course the technology part is of great importance, but it's better explained by math/computer geeks - aka smart people. In short, Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer network containing units (bitcoins) that can be transferred in the system with zero to low costs. These units can themselves incorporate other pieces of data. Every transaction is verified by the computers running the system. The math behind it makes it impossible for any entity to mess with this process of continuous update of the ledger. The ledger being a sort of receipt which contains all previous transactions in the network. To break the system you would need to muster up more than half of the systems combined computer power. Discounting the possibility of quantum computing this would be incredibly expensive and/or impossible. Which is why banks around the world are working with this technology (not Bitcoin but the block-chain tech) to make tradingsystems where traders can buy/sell stocks. But to understand why Bitcoin is a good hedge, we need to understand money and the fragility of our current economy, and why this might lead to a lot of demand for bitcoins.
Money
Money is one of man’s greatest inventions. Since we left the barter system and started using mediums of exchange, different types of mediums has been used for trading. Gold, grain, salt amongst others, gold obviously being the most famous one. The right to redeem those papers you hold in your wallet for gold ended in a peculiar fashion with the death of Bretton Woods, and ever since then, we've been trading in fiat.(1). Like art, the intrinsic value of gold is definitely questionable. Yes, everyone does seem to desire gold, still it has very limited usefulness. Paper money being a lot worse, one could argue these unredeemable paper notes are worth as much as regular paper. But the fact that you need this fiat-money to pay taxes gives the market certainty of demand in the future, which I believe is the main reason why the markets are able to attribute these notes value.
Governmental control of money
As fiat became the predominant transmitter of wealth in our economy, governmental control over money increased. From a naive standpoint that power shift could seem unsignificant, but I would argue it has given us a profound shift in real economic activities. Money in the form of gold had a certain inflation built in to it, since people continuously dig it up from the ground. Yet the gold-economy saw price deflation as production became more efficient, thanks to the invisible hand of the market and advancements in technology. These deflationary powers were at times greater than the inflation coming from new gold findings. This might seem a little off topic but what I want to say is that price-deflation has historically been the norm, and shouldn't be viewed as dangerous. In todays fiat-world however, we hear about central banks trying to fight deflation, believing such an environment would be bad for the labour market. The main argument being that workers have a hard time accepting lower nominal wages, and that this causes overwhelming troubles for companies when they have to cut labour costs. Although fairly logical, I think this theory is disputed by our economic history and should in my opinion definitely not be taken as a fact. However, today when we hear about central banks fighting deflation, what they're really fighting is a credit crunch. Debt, also a form of money, has been growing increasingly for quite some time, driven of course by both fiscal and monetary policy actions. A deleveraging of debt would shrink the amount of debt-money, largely concentrated in stocks/bonds/real estate. This is what central banks are fighting, their job is basically to get this overly leveraged economy, more leveraged. Needless to say, we're in uncharted territory and their might be huge systemic risks involved. Bitcoin may be one way to hedge against this.
Government deficits and unfunded liabilities
At which rate would you be willing to loan money to Greece? This one is really a no-brainier, meaning you shouldn't have to think to come up with an answer, since Greece wouldn't pay you back either way. Greece has a enormous debt and a whole lot of unfunded liabilities. These unfunded liabilities are mostly consisting of workers pensions and healthcare obligations to the greek people. Greek politicians will always rank these payment obligations as a higher priority expenditure than to give "greedy speculators" back their money. That simple fact holds true for most government bonds. Therefore I think almost all government bonds are worth substantially less than they are being priced today. Right now the market deems these bonds as low-risk assets. For example, the U.S 10-year bond yields around 2%. In other words; you'll get close to no return (if the FED manages to reach close to its inflation target) for loaning out your money to the worlds largest debtor nation for a period of ten years. This anomaly is so great and profound, it should be viewed as a major indicator on just how messed up things have become. How did we get these absurd yields? Well, demand for bonds drive the yields down, and ever since the financial crisis central banks like the FED and ECB has been on a buying spree. Speculators joined them in their buying and have been betting on the the continuing bondpurchasing from the CB's, or holding a belief that the CB's will be unable to reach inflation targets, basically taking a bet on deflation. In a real market economy (not driven by central banks) with a low savings rate like the United States, these bonds would yield a lot more. The fact is the U.S, much like Greece, can’t repay its debt, ever, it’s impossible, nope, can’t be done. The U.S national debt is around 18 trillion dollars and their unfunded liabilities sums up to another whopping 210 trillion (as testified to congress by Boston university economic professor Laurence Kotlikoff).(2) Even though a lot of these future expenditures as Kotlikoff is including in his measurment could be slashed, some of them, like pensions, are going to be extremely unpopular to cut. If you listen to austrian economists they are pretty much all agreeing, proclaiming that the writing has been on the wall for quite some time.
Fear of haircuts
If this whole experiment with low interest rates fails, and economic chaos indeed ensues, I expect governments around the world to act in a similar fashion as seen in Greece/Argentine. Bank depositors will most likely have to take a haircut on their deposits to refinance the banking system. I believe the threat of this bail-in approach to reach debt-equilibrium in the financial world, will drive people to assets which cannot be confiscated. And if you don't think bail-in is a high probabilty event in your country, here's Reuters reporting on the new bail-in legislation: "Bail-in legislation is now being extended to other EU countries, regardless of whether they're in the Euro or not."(3).We’ve already seen some correlations of the Bitcoin price with bad economic sentiment, and I expect that trend to catch on as time proceeds. The most clear cut example of this we got during the summer, with the increase in demand for bitcoins during the Greek-crisis. The day Greece reached an agreement with its creditors- Bitcoin dropped 12%. Yet, recent volatility in global stocks has not been accompanied with upward pressure on Bitcoin. When Dow Jones fell a thousand points intraday, Bitcoin fell as well. Suggestion the link between financial instability and the value of bitcoins at least for now is rather weak. But take a look at Argentine and their post collapse economy and you'll find something very interesting. After suffering a bond market collapse and soaring inflation, it is here where bitcoin is having the most impact as an actual money transmitter. As NYT notes ”Argentine has been quietly gaining renown in technology circles as the first, and almost only place where bitcoins are being regularly used by ordinary people for real commercial transactions.”(4)
Valuation and risk
First of all, one should obviously not invest more than what's bearable to lose, since there's a nontrivial chance of bitcoin having the value of zero in the future. I also don't want to be responsible for anyone losing a big piece of their net worth, but if you invest your money according what someone on the internet with the name "UngNaiv" (young and foolish) you probably have no one to blame but yourself. Anyway, today Bitcoin have a market cap of about 4.5 billion dollars. Besides a small market cap, the uncertainty of demand and the arguably lack of intrinsic value is two of its biggest weaknesses. Even if you believe in the idea of a digital currency, Bitcoin is far from the only one out there. There's competition in the form of other cryptocurrencies with similar but different properties, and only the future will tell which of these (if any) will come out on top. As for now though, Bitcoin has established itself as the clear frontrunner. There is also a high governmental risk involved. If our political leaders start seeing this digital money as a threat to its powers of taxation, or fears grow about what it might do to enable shady transactions, it will certainly go out of its way to try and stop it. Even though the Bitcoin as a system itself is resiliencent to government intervention, one could easily foresee regulation aimed to strangle Bitcoin companies operating in the real world, making mass adoption a lot less likely. So far the western world haven’t cracked down too much on Bitcoin, in some places it has even been declared as a currency, not a commodity, meaning any potential gains in one's holding in those countries would be free from taxation. I'll leave the risks of the underlying technology to be explained by someone else, but google the words Bitcoin+fork and you'll find another very good reason not to go full retard in bitcoins.
References:
https://history.state.gov/milestones/1969-1976/nixon-shock (1)
http://cnsnews.com/news/article/barbara-hollingsworth/economist-tells-congress-us-may-be-worse-fiscal-shape-greece (2)
http://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCAKBN0OD14Z20150528 (3)
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/03/magazine/how-bitcoin-is-disrupting-argentinas-economy.html?_r=0 (4)
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Moreover, he said that Bitcoin’s price will reach $40,000 before the Dow Jones (DJI) reaches 40,000. The DJI is a stock market index measuring the performance of 30 large companies listed on US stock exchanges. Nevertheless, Lee thinks that the DJI will reach 30,000 before Bitcoin goes to $30,000. At the time of this writing, BTC’s price is around $9,750, while the DJI stands at 29,276 ... Lately, Bitcoin price has been showing record-high levels of correlation with traditional markets and on July 9 the correlation between the S&P 500 and BTC reached a new all-time high. Data from ... It seems like there is just a matter of time until the Dow reaches a new all-time high, and a strong earnings season may be just what it needs to do so. To trade a move higher, bulls may want to wait for the Dow to actually make a new all-time high. Next, the invalidation level comes at the previous higher low in the series. Also, a proper ... Bitcoin Reaches 144 Weeks From All-Time High: Why This Number Matters; Why Ethereum DeFi’s Yearn.finance (YFI) Just Surged to New All-Time High; 10 Best Zero Balance Saving Account; eToro Launches GoodDollar and Leverages Yield Farming and Staking to Begin Delivering a Sustainable Global Basic Income Cryptocurrency bitcoin soared to a record high. It's worth big bucks. Skip to Content. Rankings. See All Rankings; Fortune 500; Global 500; 40 Under 40; Magazine; Newsletters; Video; Podcasts ...

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BULL RALLY or MORE DOWNSIDE COMING for BITCOIN LITECOIN ETHEREUM and DOW JONES crypto trading, news

URGENT!!! MUST SEE!!! DECISION TIME for BITCOIN LITECOIN and ETHEREUM, also looks like the DOW is lining up for the same move, regardless of what you hear, B... #Bitcoin continues to slump as Dow Jone hits all time high! Is now a good time to buy BTC? IRS changes tune on cryptocurrency based taxed payments, analyzing BTC fractals, India crypto regulation ... RALLY or DUMP for BITCOIN LITECOIN ETHEREUM and the DOW JONES crypto price, analysis, news, trading - Duration: 17 ... BTC HASHRATES AT ALL TIME HIGH - Duration: 11:50. Tyler S 11,830 views. 11:50 ... BITCOIN LITECOIN ETHEREUM and DOW JONES traditional markets, Will Bitcoin work for the average joe?or will it backfire and the rich own the majority? 👉 My Wife's CRYPTO MERCH page: https ... Tonight on Thursday Night Stock Charts Live we discuss Paul Tudor Jones and his position in Bitcoin. We'll discuss negative rates and when we will see gold hit new all time highs.

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