https://obelisk.tech Sia is releasing a 28nm, full-custom ASIC. This ASIC will be a complete package, similar to an antminer. You will receive a mining box that includes chips, power supplies, etc. Minimal setup will be required to get the miner working. The miner is in early development already. We have begun the process of chip design, hardware design, and supply chain management. We have had conversations with previous ASIC manufacturers, and we have been warned about delays, unexpected costs, and myriads of pitfalls that throw off estimations. For this reason, we have set a conservative shipping date of June 2018. If the miners are ready sooner, they will be shipped sooner. If all goes well (and it rarely does, especially for first time manufacturers), we could see the miners shipping before March 2018. Following the presale, we will be posting a development roadmap on our website that includes all the major steps of development. We will be crossing off steps in the roadmap as we complete them, which will allow the community to follow our progress, have visibility into delays, and will be able to see the places where we are ahead of or behind schedule. The estimated hashrate is 100 GH/s. We will not know the exact hashrate until later in the development process, however we have confidence that 100 GH/s is a low bar to hit. We may end up shipping miners with a much higher hashrate, and will continue updating the estimated hashrate as we get more accurate estimates for how the chips will perform. The estimated power draw is 500w, though it may be significantly less. The price of the unit is going to be $2499. Chip manufacturing is expensive, supply chains are expensive, and there are a lot of single-time costs that go into making miners. Future batches will likely have lower prices, however they will also ship later. We will be selling the miners for Bitcoin. We expect the sale volume to be very large (in the tens of millions of dollars), and we feared that the Sia cryptocurrency would not have enough liquidity to handle all of that volume, resulting in the price rising quickly as people scramble to buy Siacoin for the ASIC, and then the price falling quickly as we convert the Siacoin to USD. This is the worst of both worlds - participants buy the siacoin at a premium, and then we sell them at a discount. Bitcoin has much, much deeper liquidity, and we can sell large volume of Bitcoin quickly without moving the price too much. We will be converting the Bitcoin to USD as fast as possible. If the price fluctuates by more than 5% before we are able to convert, we will need to request more coins to cover the difference, or cancel the order. If the price fluctuates upwards by more than 5% before we convert, we will return the difference. The sale and shipment of ASICs on the Sia network is going to dramatically increase the hashrate. When considering how much revenue you may get from a unit, please take into account the fact that we are selling enough units to potentially 10x or 100x the difficulty. If another ASIC manufacturer decides to start selling Sia ASICs, the hashrate may go up by more than just the number of units we sell. Please also consider that the block reward is decreasing. Today, the block reward is about 189,000 siacoins per block. By June 2018, our ship date, the block reward is going to be closer to 135,000 siacoins per block, decreasing by 1 siacoin per block (or 4320 siacoins per month). The presale will be open for 7 days. There is no rush - people who buy on the fourth day will receive the same treatment as people who buy on the first day. The sale will not close early, and while we reserve the right to deny purchases, we have chosen not to put a cap on the number of units sold. We may pre-sell additional batches before the first batch ships. The first batch will have priority when we begin shipping, and if the later batches will be shipping shortly after, those later batches will be sold at a higher price. People who buy in on the first batch will receive both price preference and shipping date preference as a reward for taking on the most risk. Obelisk is the company that will be producing these chips. Obelisk is a fully owned subsidiary of Nebulous Inc. Nebulous is the company that employs all of the Sia core developers. Obelisk has plans for growth in the future. None of these plans are finalized as we are primarily focusing on shipping this miner, but potential future products include:
A 16nm or 14nm ASIC for Sia
A mining card costing under $1000 that you can put into a GPU slot
ASICs for other PoW cryptocurrencies
Finally, we plan to introduce decentralized mining pools into the Sia ecosystem before we ship the miners. Hosts will have the option of running their own mining pool, and then miners can detect the hosts by checking the blockchain and the peer network, forming payment channel contracts with them and participating in fully decentralized mining. This should help alleviate the pool centralization that is seen in most PoW cryptocurrencies. We are very excited about our new company, and hope that you share in our excitement. Feel free to ask any questions.
tl;dr: either the growth in the hash rate must slow down, the power consumption must go down, or the price of BTC must go up, a lot. And according to https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty, it is showing no signs at all of slowing down, hashrate actually seems to be still growing exponentially, which is good. Using the following conversion factors, constants and assumptions: Code: GH/s per Diff 0.007158388055 Blocks/Period 2016 BTC/Period 50400 Watts per GH/s 1 (assumed constant rest of this year, is it right to assume this?) USD/kWh $0.10 In other words assuming everyone in the network pays $0.10 per kWh and everyone has miners that burn 1 W per GH/s (1 J/GH) then we can calculate the average production cost for each BTC over the last year as follows: Assuming the network growth rate over the next year is about 20% average we get:
Hash Rate Power Energy Cost Cost Date Difficulty TH/s MW MWh $/Period $/BTC
11-Sep-14 33,220,936,877 237,808 238 66,349 $6,634,853 $131.64 23-Sep-14 40,236,446,759 288,028 288 80,360 $8,035,984 $159.44 04-Oct-14 48,733,473,526 348,853 349 97,330 $9,733,002 $193.12 16-Oct-14 59,024,880,009 422,523 423 117,884 $11,788,392 $233.90 28-Oct-14 71,489,598,585 511,750 512 142,778 $14,277,833 $283.29 08-Nov-14 86,586,583,575 619,820 620 172,930 $17,292,988 $343.11 20-Nov-14 104,871,710,060 750,712 751 209,449 $20,944,876 $415.57 02-Dec-14 127,018,241,359 909,246 909 253,680 $25,367,960 $503.33 13-Dec-14 153,841,618,762 1,101,258 1,101 307,251 $30,725,098 $609.62 25-Dec-14 186,329,486,300 1,333,819 1,334 372,135 $37,213,544 $738.36 05-Jan-15 225,678,056,071 1,615,491 1,615 450,722 $45,072,202 $894.29 17-Jan-15 273,336,153,086 1,956,646 1,957 545,904 $54,590,430 $1,083.14 29-Jan-15 331,058,561,407 2,369,846 2,370 661,187 $66,118,694 $1,311.88 09-Feb-15 400,970,635,767 2,870,303 2,870 800,815 $80,081,465 $1,588.92 21-Feb-15 485,646,557,708 3,476,447 3,476 969,929 $96,992,858 $1,924.46 05-Mar-15 588,204,117,648 4,210,593 4,211 1,174,756 $117,475,554 $2,330.86 16-Mar-15 712,419,512,763 5,099,775 5,100 1,422,837 $142,283,732 $2,823.09 28-Mar-15 862,866,387,600 6,176,732 6,177 1,723,308 $172,330,835 $3,419.26 08-Apr-15 1,045,084,236,901 7,481,119 7,481 2,087,232 $208,723,207 $4,141.33 20-Apr-15 1,265,782,371,309 9,060,961 9,061 2,528,008 $252,800,823 $5,015.89 02-May-15 1,533,086,956,002 10,974,431 10,974 3,061,866 $306,186,635 $6,075.13 13-May-15 1,856,840,218,301 13,291,983 13,292 3,708,463 $370,846,321 $7,358.06 25-May-15 2,248,962,841,151 16,098,949 16,099 4,491,607 $449,160,670 $8,911.92 06-Jun-15 2,723,892,885,897 19,498,682 19,499 5,440,132 $544,013,236 $10,793.91 17-Jun-15 3,299,117,405,623 23,616,363 23,616 6,588,965 $658,896,517 $13,073.34 29-Jun-15 3,995,816,323,188 28,603,604 28,604 7,980,405 $798,040,547 $15,834.14 10-Jul-15 4,839,642,281,734 34,644,038 34,644 9,665,686 $966,568,646 $19,177.95 22-Jul-15 5,861,665,181,962 41,960,074 41,960 11,706,861 $1,170,686,065 $23,227.90 03-Aug-15 7,099,516,184,307 50,821,092 50,821 14,179,085 $1,417,908,463 $28,133.10 14-Aug-15 8,598,773,298,472 61,553,356 61,553 17,173,386 $1,717,338,634 $34,074.18 26-Aug-15 10,414,639,578,109 74,552,032 74,552 20,800,017 $2,080,001,680 $41,269.87 07-Sep-15 12,613,975,712,232 90,295,733 90,296 25,192,510 $2,519,250,952 $49,985.14 In other words something has got to give by the end of the year, or actually before December 1 This does not take into account hardware manufacturing cost or other expenses, just strictly electricity costs to produce one btc. I'm sure there are more efficient miners out now that are better than 1 watt gh right? Regardless of above, from now until 2016 block halving it's going to be extremely interesting to see what happens to bitcoin, and i think during this time peroid is when we will know for sure if bitcoin will become mainstream or not...
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